NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 7 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 24, 2021
NFL survivor week 7

Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for NFL fans in recent years. Big brands like DraftKings and Circa are among those offering monster prizes in 2021. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL survivor Week 7 plays.

Remember that you must plan for the long term, and you must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.

Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value. Plus, avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

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NFL Survivor Week 7: The Slam Dunks

Moneylines below from DraftKings Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid. Note that pick percentages are not available early Monday and will be added to this piece at a later time.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Cardinals-1250~89%vs. HOU46.8
Rams-1000~87%vs. DET11.5
Buccaneers-850~86%vs. CHI3.6

Welcome back, everyone. And we do mean everyone after a week in which basically zero surprises occurred. And if you thought last week went predictably, wait until you see some of the favorites for Week 7. We’ve started to reach a stage where it’s become more clear just how bad some of these teams are, and the moneylines have stretched to the breaking point because of it.

All of these teams look like layups but all three have varying issues that could keep people off of them, issues that have nothing to do with what’s likely to happen on the field.

The Cardinals play on Christmas, which is its own week for the Circa contest. If you’re playing in a standard format, feel free to click them and move on, because this should be a free space and they won’t be this big of favorites again all year. The one caveat: make sure Davis Mills plays for Houston as the team does have a quarter of a pulse with Tyrod Taylor at QB.

The Rams still play both Houston and Jacksonville. So, your ability to play them, if you still have them in the back pocket, depends how you want to play Weeks 8 and 13.

Tampa Bay has the toughest opponent, Chicago. The Bears come in off two straight wins and then a loss to Green Bay in which they didn’t embarrass themselves. Rookie QB Justin Fields and a live pass rush could provide some variance here, but it shouldn’t be too tough for Tampa to roll.

The only thing here is Tampa is projected to be one of the biggest favorites in Week 12. Circa players have a double pick that week but even in standard formats, there are few great options. Be sure to plan ahead before you click the Bucs here.

The Lightly Contested Layups

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Packers-425~77%vs WAS17.6
Patriots-320~73%vs. NYJ14.1
Ravens-290~71%vs. CIN1.3

These teams represent varying degrees of risk compared to the slam dunks, but they might be more attractive plays depending on the size of the pool and how you want to plan out the coming weeks. All should win but be aware that per the implied probabilities, it’s more likely than not that one of them will lose.

The Ravens certainly look to have the toughest challenge on their hands. At this point, several other “surprise” teams like the Panthers and Broncos have fallen by the wayside. It’s looking more and more like the Bengals have a legitimately solid team.

The only thing that seems to hold them back is refusal to let the ball fly more often. They rank in the bottom quarter of the league in passing rate, but if they air it out here, this should be competitive.

New England smacked the Jets 25-6 back in Week 2. Except, what many don’t realize is the Jets actually outgained them 4.9 YPP to 4.6. Can Zach Wilson rein in the turnovers after getting the bye week to regroup? If he can, this one is interesting because most players who didn’t use the Pats against the Texans likely use them here. The only alternative looks to be all the way in Week 17, home to Jacksonville.

If you have yet to use the Packers, this looks like a beautiful spot. Taylor Heinicke looked dreadful once again in getting shut out in the second half by a poor Chiefs defense. Just double check and make sure WFT doesn’t activate Ryan Fitzpatrick from IR.

Given that many have already used the Pack, they could represent a sneakier-than-you-think pivot off the massive favorites and Patriots. Green Bay surprisingly only has two layups remaining on the schedule and one comes Week 17 hosting Detroit. They may have zero to play for by then.

Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options for NFL Survivor Week 7

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Saints-210~65%@ SEA0.6
Falcons-135~56%@ MIA0.5

If layups and dunks don’t excite, perhaps you’re just truly committed to taking the contrarian path. If that’s the case, we’ll offer a couple of further options to explore.

The Saints do come off a bye and get the wounded Seahawks running out Geno Smith at QB on Monday Night Football.

The thing that makes this game attractive is the way Seattle came back against Pittsburgh. They handed to Alex Collins over and over and he ripped off huge run after huge run after the team got nothing going in the first half. That seems unlikely to work against the Saints, who look borderline elite against the run according to all of the advanced metrics. But you can bet Pete Carroll will come out pounding the rock here.

Still, taking a mediocre QB on the road in a hostile environment seems inadvisable with so many easier spots on the board.

If you absolutely must go a mile off the board, perhaps the Falcons merit a look. On paper, this makes no sense. Tua Tagovailoa returned for Miami and actually looked pretty good this week. Admittedly it came against the Jags’ putrid pass defense, but 7.4 yards per pass will do most of the time.

It’s the situational factors at play that have Atlanta favored. They’re coming off a bye and the Dolphins elected not to take the standard post-London bye. They likely won’t perform at their peak.

Players in leagues that use double picks late in the season could try to get a sneaky one through here.

Good luck in NFL survivor Week 7.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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