NFL Survivor Week 6 Picks, Win Probability Tool

NFL Survivor pools are already reaching the endgame. This week, TheLines.com’s Pro Football Survivor contest has less than 40 entries remaining after starting with close to 2,000 in the $10,000 pool. Let’s explore some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 6 picks, which feature the Eagles as the surprise biggest favorites after a significant market downgrade to Cleveland. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 6 odds.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
NFL Survivor Week 5 Recap
Stop us if you’ve heard this before but the top two moneyline favorites both lost in Week 5. That means another huge chunk of most pools were kicked to the curb, including 50% of the big Circa contest. Many smaller pools wrapped up this week thanks to Seattle and San Francisco losing. Seattle melted down on the road in New York, and the 49ers blew it in spectacular fashion in the fourth quarter against Arizona.
Read on if you’re somehow still going, though.
NFL Survivor Week 6: Top Projected Win Percentages
Here are some NFL Survivor picks reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Popularity |
---|---|---|---|---|
Eagles | -450 | ~76.6% | vs. CLE | Subscribe |
Ravens | -300 | ~71.8% | vs. WAS | Subscribe |
Texans | -300 | ~71.8% | @ NE | Subscribe |
Packers | -250 | ~67.4% | @ ARI | Subscribe |
Falcons | -225 | ~66% | @ CAR | Subscribe |
NFL Survivor Week 6 Picks: The Obvious Chalk
Before the season began, few people would have been circling Philadelphia at home against Cleveland on their survivor docket. But Deshaun Watson and the Browns offense have been so bad (32nd in offense DVOA before this week), that suddenly fading the Browns has become a solid strategy.
The Eagles additionally enter a nice situational spot at home and off the bye. They also won’t be an exciting survivor option again until Week 14 (vs. CAR). Most pools will be long over by then.
Houston will also be on many people’s radars. They have played a difficult schedule thus far, and consequently, most survivor players will still have them available. Playing in New England should bring a bit of a breather for the Texans, as the Patriots try to sort out whether they’ll switch starting QBs.
According to PoolGenius, the Texans will only be stronger favorites in Week 12 (vs. TEN).
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
Lower down the card, Atlanta will probably be a popular option. They play Carolina on the road with extra rest, and the Panthers don’t look like they can stop a nosebleed right now. They look like an automatic get-right spot for struggling offenses. And Kirk Cousins just threw for 500 yards, so this Falcons offense should roll.
PoolGenius isn’t excited about Atlanta again until Week 16, so this is a good spot for the Falcons in Survivor.
If you want to get out in front of this Washington offense, clicking the Ravens is an option. Most people probably have Week 9 (vs. DEN) circled, but who knows if your pool will even see Week 9.
Until someone stops this Commanders’ offense, it’s difficult to feel good picking against them. But in bigger pools where the Ravens are widely available but won’t be popular (due to the Eagles and Texans), they might make sense to differentiate.
On the one hand, picking Green Bay against Arizona doesn’t look appealing from a variance standpoint. The Cardinals have been all over the place thus far. Nobody would blink if they won that game even in Green Bay.
On the other hand, if you’re in a large pool that will get close to the end of the season, this might be the last chance to pick the Packers. They don’t project as comfortable favorites the entire rest of the season unless Tua Tagovailoa remains out in Week 13.
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One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 6 Picks
It’s tough to trust a bad offense on the road. But, Pittsburgh playing in Las Vegas might make sense for some survivor picks. The Raiders have fallen back into the bottom tier where many expected them to land after an inept offensive performance against Denver. Raiders QBs combined for three picks as Gardner Minshew played his way to the bench only for Aidan O’Connell to perform even worse.
Good luck to them against the Steelers’ defense.
At the same time, Pittsburgh gets the Giants at home in Week 8. That projects as a much better spot than this one, but they’re the only small favorite truly worth considering.
My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 6 Picks
Philly has plenty of good spots available coming up, so I’d try to look elsewhere if you think they’ll be popular in your pool.
Houston makes a lot of sense, but keep an eye on Nico Collins’ status. He makes a material difference to that offense and went out injured in Week 5.
I’d probably look to the Bengals at the Giants as well as a pivot away from the Falcons. The Giants are certainly drawing live, but they’re going to have a tough time slowing these receivers down. The Bengals are a good option in Week 9 as well, but I like them here against a Giants defense that is built to win in the trenches and not outside.
Good luck with NFL Survivor Week 6 picks.
Compare NFL Moneyline Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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