NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 6 Win Probabilities Tool
NFL Survivor picks have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. DraftKings is one of the sports betting sites that offers pools as well throughout the season, not just before Week 1. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options and teams most likely to win. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 6 plays, which feature several big favorites and perhaps the only chance remaining to use one solid NFL team. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 6 odds.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides extremely useful data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
NFL Survivor Week 5 Recap
Week 5 was a wildly divergent one in NFL Survivor. Either you made it through with the Lions and Dolphins layups, or you pivoted to Commanders, and you probably aren’t even reading this article. There wasn’t much sweat either way, with fates pretty much sealed up at halftime all around.
Those who took the layups obviously burned some good teams. But they survived, and it’s onto the next in NFL Survivor Week 6. The same two fades sit at the top of the board.
Here are some survivor reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
NFL Survivor Week 6: Projected Win Percentages
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The Obvious Chalk
Back to having the usual suspects at the top, it’s difficult to imagine any of these teams losing. It just comes down to whether NFL survivor players have used them and whether they plan to use them going forward.
In the cases of the Chiefs and Dolphins, if players still have them in their back pockets, it may behoove them to save them. That’s particularly true in contests like Circa, which require the players to select a winner from an extra set of games in the holiday weeks. Kansas City hosts Las Vegas as part of the stand-alone slate in Week 16. Additionally, both KC and Miami will be solid favorites in Week 12, making them options on the main slate apart from Thanksgiving.
In smaller pools that may have considerable attrition already, the Chiefs hold the most appeal. Buffalo and Miami are expected to be double-digit favorites several times in the next five or six weeks.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
Most survivor players who have made it this far have likely used the 5-0 Eagles. If you somehow have not, then this represents arguably the last soft spot on their schedule until the final few weeks of the season. That possibly excepts at Washington in two weeks, but divisional road favorites do not generally have much appeal. The Eagles should win, and they should carry low ownership in many pools.
San Francisco may become a free space if Dorian Thompson-Robinson winds up starting. That would have seemingly been a surprise since Deshaun Watson was medically cleared for Week 4. But, early Week 6 news said he missed the team’s Monday workouts. Keep an eye on that situation.
The Jaguars and Rams present interesting plays because neither has many appealing spots in the future.
LA, in particular, is just a lower-quality team than Jacksonville but will probably need to be used in most decent-sized pools. They do get Pittsburgh at home next week, which doesn’t have many projected large favorites, though.
As for the Jags, traveling home from London off a huge win has possible letdown written all over it. It’s a risky play that could pay off if you don’t have other options, but the situational spot isn’t great.
- Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord with more than 4,000 community members and our staff sharing betting ideas every day. Go to the #roles server to get push notifications to the Discord app from TheLines.com staff when they lock in a bet.
One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 6
Things have possibly hit rock bottom in New England. Fans and media are openly speculating about Bill Belichick’s job, Mac Jones’ performance has cratered, and his body language is possibly even worse than his play. The Raiders do have a bit of rest disadvantage playing on Monday Night Football, but as long as Jimmy Garoppolo and Davante Adams make it through that game healthy, the Raiders do figure to close as home favorites here. You won’t look their way again aside from the aforementioned Week 9 spots.
Atlanta possibly carries a bit more risk. Washington has extra time to rest and prepare, and the Commanders have looked competent on offense at times. The defense was disastrous against the Bears. But can Desmond Ridder take advantage of this vulnerable secondary? The Falcons’ ground-bound offense presents an altogether different sort of matchup for Washington.
Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 6.
Compare NFL MoneylIne Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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