NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 6 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 10, 2022 - Last Updated on October 11, 2022
NFL survivor week 6

Week 5 proved yet another blood bath in the survivor streets. Thanks mainly to the Jaguars (and, to a lesser extent, the Packers), a whopping 40% of the Circa field busted on Sunday. In the ESPN nationwide contest, less than 7% of the original 500,000+ entries remain. Onto NFL survivor Week 6.

If you are still alive, our congratulations. Moving forward, remember that you must plan for the long term, and you must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the NFL survivor pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.

Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value. Plus, avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

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Editor’s Note

NFL Survivor Week 6: The Obvious Chalk

Moneylines below from Caesars Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid as of Oct. 11.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Rams-550~81%vs. CAR30.9
Buccaneers-400~77%@ PIT25.6
Packers-350~74%vs. NYJ11.5

The Carolina Panthers are in complete disarray. They’ve fired the coach after yet another listless, offense-challenged loss, this time in San Francisco. Worse yet for their prospects this week, it looks like PJ Walker will draw a spot start with Baker Mayfield injured.

Sure, Mayfield has been atrocious this year. But Walker is on another level of bad. He has completed 57% of his passes as a pro with 2 TDs and 8 INTs while absorbing a hideous 9.2% sack rate.

The Rams had another rough day on offense in Week 5. Once again, they couldn’t protect the passer at all. Only Miami has sunk lower in PFF’s pass blocking grades. But, the Panthers have a weak pass rush despite the play of Brian Burns. And the Rams won’t be favored this large for the rest of the season.

The Packers are another big favorite entering this week with huge questions after an ugly loss to the Giants. The defense got trampled on the ground again. Luckily, the Jets have had middling to bad production from their ground game.

Both Green Bay and Tampa Bay have several more games remaining as large favorites. That makes it tempting to just go for the seeming layup in fading PJ Walker on the road. But a large chunk of the pool may gravitate in that direction.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Chargers-240~68%vs. DEN6.6
49ers-240~68%@ ATL9.4
Eagles-235~67%vs. DAL1.6
Ravens-235~67%@ NYG2.8

Two of these teams stand out as deserving some attention.

The 49ers have another weak opponent on the road here facing the Falcons. Atlanta continued to showcase a strong running game in Week 5 with another 151 yards. But, running has been impossible on the 49ers. They rank first in YPA allowed with a piddling 3, and only the Titans have allowed a lower success rate. Marcus Mariota should find the going very tough.

Furthermore, the best spots to use the 49ers after this look to be in the final three weeks. They get the Commanders and Cardinals at home down the stretch. If you are in a small pool that has already dwindled to a handful of entries, you don’t need to worry about games that far down the road.

Even better might be the Chargers. They have a tough schedule, with only projected decent favorite spot home against Seattle the following week. That game will have a pretty high total, which means increased variance. And Denver looks pretty ripe for fading following recent reports that Russell Wilson is playing through a torn muscle. Not having Javonte Williams also looms. Normally, missing a RB isn’t something to worry about, but he’s the exact type of player who can thrive against this soft run defense.

Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 6

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Vikings-160~59%@ MIA2.1
Browns-155~58%vs. NE0.6

Vikings playing at Dolphins was not on the survivor radar before Sunday. However, Teddy Bridgewater exited with a head injury very early and didn’t return. This is veering way into speculation territory, but of all franchises, the Dolphins are the least likely to risk bringing a player back soon after that sort of injury.

That might mean a Skylar Thompson start unless the team opts to sign a veteran backup off someone else’s practice squad. Thompson got his butt kicked by the lowly Jets as the team got 4.4 YPA dropping back.

The Vikes get the Jets at home in Week 13 and the Giants at home in Week 16. That’s all for very attractive spots so this isn’t the worst game to gamble on. This play obviously gains a ton of additional value in leagues where you can only pick against each team once.

The Browns also may face a third-string QB in Bailey Zappe. He had another easy, handoff-heavy assignment in Week 5. The problem is, that could continue against Cleveland, which can’t stop a nosebleed so far and just let Austin Ekeler get 10.8 YPA. If he has to throw passes with Myles Garrett bearing down on him on the road, this could get ugly for the Patriots though.

Cleveland has even less future value than Minnesota. They aren’t even projected to be favorites until they host they host the Texans in Week 13.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 6.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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