NFL Survivor Week 5 Picks, Win Probability Tool
NFL Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years, and the latest big favorite to take out a sizable chunk of pools was the New York Jets in Week 4. This week, TheLines.com will explore some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 5 picks, which feature the 49ers again as the biggest favorites, only most people probably used them in Week 4. That creates an interesting dynamic. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 5 odds.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
NFL Survivor Week 4 Recap
It wasn’t quite to the level of previous weeks’ carnage, but plenty of survivor entries again fell by the wayside in Week 4. The Jets and the Cardinals knocked out chunks of players, especially the Jets. They lost at home to the Broncos after closing around -8 and allowing negative passing yards to Bo Nix in the first half. That isn’t an easy trick to pull.
In total, the big Circa contest lost about 23% of its entries, dropping the total number remaining below 500.
Most smaller pools are likely in the endgame now if they weren’t already.
NFL Survivor Week 5: Top Projected Win Percentages
Here are some NFL Survivor picks reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Popularity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -350 | ~75.7% | vs. SEA | Subscribe |
| Seahawks | -250 | ~70.2% | vs. NYG | Subscribe |
| Chiefs | -225 | ~67.1% | vs. NO | Subscribe |
| Packers | -190 | ~63.5% | @ LAR | Subscribe |
| Bears | -190 | ~63.5% | vs. CAR | Subscribe |
NFL Survivor Week 5 Picks: The Obvious Chalk
It’s hard to see a way the 49ers could be the chalk in most pools, as they were more than 40% owned in Circa and probably many other spots in Week 4. That means they’ll only be a potential play for a select few, especially with the second-most popular Week 4 team having caused a slew of bust outs.
In any case, hosting Arizona isn’t necessarily the most exciting spot, considering Kyler Murray’s wide range of outcomes.
Instead, Seattle looks like the clear chalk, at least for survivor players who didn’t use them in Week 1. They have a potential dream situation here if Malik Nabers is out. The highly touted WR has more than delivered on his promise thus far, almost single-handedly powering the Giants passing attack.
Without Nabers, the Giants will have a very tough time keeping up on the road here. He will have a better chance to clear concussion protocol without missing a game than most because New York played on Thursday, but he’s still likely an underdog to go. Monitor that, as his presence would boost Giants odds considerably.
PoolGenius only projects two other playable spots for Seattle, hosting the Rams and Cardinals (Week 9 and 12, respectively). Players will have to weigh potential popularity here as many pools that went heavy 49ers in Week 4 will be overweight Seahawks.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
The medium favorites all look quite dicey this week.
The Chiefs lead the group by market rating, but they are facing a slew of questions on offense. That unit just hasn’t been very impressive since Week 1, and now they’ll be operating without the best pass catcher on the team. Rashee Rice sounds like he’ll be out for the year, and the Chiefs will face a much more dangerous Saints offense than the hobbled Falcons and Chargers units they dominated.
At the same time, the Chiefs probably won’t be a great play until Week 10 (vs. Denver), and that might be an irrelevant week in smaller pools.
Chicago faces a suddenly frisky Panthers offense at home. They won’t have any value until Week 10 as well (vs. Patriots). It’s difficult to trust this team because the dysfunctional offense gives them such a low floor. But they’ll probably represent an acceptable pivot from the top options.
Washington gets the remnants of the Browns at home. Jayden Daniels is looking sharp, but this is a much tougher test for him after facing putrid defenses the past two weeks. The Commanders also get Carolina at home in two weeks, so there’s not much urgency to take them. There are several big favorites that week, though.
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Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 5 Picks
If you need to dig deep, the Jaguars and Broncos may be worth looks.
Jacksonville gets the Patriots in Week 7 in the ultimate situational advantage, staying in London while the Patriots travel. So, that will probably be the best spot to use them. But PoolGenius doesn’t like it much more than this week hosting the Colts.
Taking an 0-4 team in survivor takes a lot of courage, but it’s not that crazy with a backup QB coming to town and the Jags having probably played well enough to earn at least one win if not two so far.
Like Washington and Chicago, Denver eventually hosts the Panthers (Week 8). So that would probably be the spot for them, but keep an eye on the Raiders’ injury report. If Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams remain out, the Broncos will close as home favorites here.
My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 5 Picks
The key this week will be to figure out how heavy your pool is on the Seahawks. Yes, they’re in a great spot, but if they are 40% owned, you’re going to have more expected value looking elsewhere.
If the Seahawks and 49ers are off the table, I like plugging your nose and praying for a decent Caleb Williams game. The Bears still have a very good defense, so they should win at home against a Panthers team that won’t be able to stop anyone the rest of the year without Derrick Brown.
Good luck with NFL Survivor Week 5 picks.
Compare NFL Moneyline Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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