NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 5 Win Probabilities Tool
NFL Survivor picks have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. DraftKings is one of the sports betting sites that offers pools as well throughout the season, not just before Week 1. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options and teams most likely to win. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 5 plays, which feature what should be three very popular choices. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 5 odds.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides extremely useful data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
NFL Survivor Week 4 Recap
At long last, a reprieve for survivor players. Week 4 was essentially a bloodless one, as all of the big favorites got through. The Eagles and Chargers provided varying degrees of sweat for their backers before ultimately emerging victorious, and basically everyone who made Week 4 moved on to Week 5.
NFL Survivor Week 5 has two big favorites that will command a lot of ownership and one smaller favorite that will do likewise, simply due to the lack of future value inherent.
Here are some survivor reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
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NFL Survivor Week 5: The Obvious Chalk
Moneylines below from BetMGM. Pick percentages via PoolGenius as of Oct. 3.
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Pick% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | -450 | ~78% | vs. CAR | 39 |
| Dolphins | -450 | ~78% | vs. NYJ | Subscribe |
It’s nice to see some fresh faces at the top after several weeks of San Francisco, Kansas City and Philadelphia as the clear chalk play. That will shake up the contests a little bit as people decide to plot out some separate routes.
With Bryce Young under center, Carolina might be the worst team in the NFL. Now, they travel to Detroit to play a Lions team with extra rest. That doesn’t seem likely to go well, so is this the week to fire Detroit?
Probably. Week 11 looks like another tremendous spot for hosting the Bears. But several other big favorites dot the board that week, so not having Detroit in your back pocket doesn’t look like a big deal. The only concern here would be the ownership level.
Miami also has a rest advantage in hosting the Giants. However, they also have several spots as huge favorites, including hosting these same Panthers next week. Which of these sides is more attractive depends on how you expect your pool to play.
TheLInes NFL Survivor Podcast: Week 5
Watch for TheLines’ NFL survivor podcast, which will be posted Wednesday on our YouTube channel. Just search TheLinesUS on YouTube to find it and subscribe for free.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Pick% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | -275 | ~70% | vs. CHI | Subscribe |
| Bills | -250 | ~68% | vs. JAC (London) | 3 |
| Ravens | -225 | ~66% | @ PIT | Subscribe |
| Chiefs | -225 | ~66% | @ MIN | Subscribe |
| Eagles | -210 | ~65% | @ LAR | Subscribe |
| Bengals | -200 | ~64% | @ ARI | 3 |
Several of these games have little to no appeal unless you’re very bullish about a particular spot that should have low ownership. The Chiefs and Eagles both play road games against solid passing offenses. They should win, but there are better spots than these high-variance ones. The Bengals are a mess with a QB who can’t move.
Of these road games, only Baltimore really looks intriguing. Divisional road games are usually a dicey choice, but Pittsburgh’s offense is truly an injury-riddled disaster. And the Ravens have a demanding schedule without any true layups.
Washington is the team that stands out here. PoolGenius only projects them with any appealing win probability in Week 11 hosting the Giants and that will be far from a free win. If your pool goes heavy on Detroit and Miami, then Washington looks like a strong, if risky, play.
- Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord with more than 4,000 community members and our staff sharing betting ideas every day. Go to the #roles server to get push notifications to the Discord app from TheLines.com staff when they lock in a bet.
One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 5
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Pick% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | -135 | ~55% | vs. NYJ | 0 |
You can’t trust this pathetic Broncos team any farther than you can punt them. Still, Denver probably won’t even be in consideration for the rest of the season, barring an opposing QB injury.
Zach Wilson played the game of life on Sunday Night Football. Denver should win this game if he reverts to his prior form. But it’s a highly risky play and one that you probably don’t need to make as long as you’ve got a course plotted out that allows for using Detroit or Miami in Week 5.
Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 5.
Compare NFL MoneylIne Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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