NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 5 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 3, 2022
NFL week 5 survivor

Survivor players across the nation endured a sweaty Sunday since upwards of 50% or more in many pools took the Packers. While they ultimately prevailed, it came in overtime and after the Patriots had the ball around midfield needing only a field goal to win. Still, about 20% of the Circa field busted courtesy of the Steelers, Colts and Lions. Another 8800 (14.5%) were eliminated in the ESPN contest. On to NFL survivor Week 5.

If you are still alive, our congratulations. Moving forward, remember that you must plan for the long term, and you must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the NFL survivor pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.

Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value. Plus, avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

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Editor’s Note

NFL Survivor Week 5: The Obvious Chalk

Moneylines below from Caesars Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid as of Oct. 4.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Bills-900~86%vs. PIT33.1
Buccaneers-385~76%vs. ATL16.9
Packers-385~76%vs. NYG (London)7
Chiefs-345~74%vs. LV4.3
Jaguars-335~74%vs. HOU13.7
Vikings-335~74%vs. CHI9.6

Unlike last week, NFL survivor Week 5 features a fairly large selection of big favorites from which to choose. That means ownership will be far more spread out.

One stands clear cut above the rest in win probability: the Bills. Kenny Pickett looks like he will draw his first career start on the road in Buffalo. The Bills have the No. 2 defense in the league by EPA/play and will bring PFF’s No. 1 pass rush to bear. Good luck, young fella.

Just remember the Bills dropped one as very similarly-sized favorites in 2021, albeit on the road in Jacksonville. Countless survivor entries busted there, and a huge chunk of players will likely have Bills here as well.

As for the rest of the layup options, the Jaguars stand out as having clearly less value than the other teams down the road. It’s probably either now or use them against the Giants at home in two weeks. Fading Davis Mills on the road has been a clear recipe for success.

Keep an eye on the Packers here as well. Speaking of the Giants, they’ll face Green Bay in London. While that travel element adds an unpleasant variable to the equation, the Giants have a rough situation potentially brewing at QB. Daniel Jones’ status looks in question after sustaining an ankle injury. Backup Tyrod Taylor also left Week 4 injured and didn’t return. Early reports say the team could potentially wind up starting practice squad QB Davis Webb. Getting the Pack at low ownership (thanks to last week’s usage) in something close to a free space would make them the play of the week.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
49ers-385~69%@ CAR2.5
Saints-240~68%vs. SEA1.7
Rams-235~67%vs. DAL1
Eagles-235~67%@ ARI0.8

The Philadelphia Eagles continue to roll, but they don’t look like a great option this week. They play on the road and are projected as larger favorites in the four following games. So, even in smaller pools where you don’t need to worry about the last few weeks of the season, saving the Eagles is probably best.

New Orleans’ status looks in flux. The Saints played pretty well with a very short-handed offense in Week 4 against the Vikings. But how many good games in a row can Andy Dalton put together if indeed he starts again? After a brutal week of travel, they play against the suddenly frisky Seahawks offense. Amazing as it would have sounded a few weeks ago, Geno Smith is not an exciting fade right now.

On the other hand, the Saints won’t be decent favorites again until they host Atlanta off the bye in Week 15.

The 49ers look like a pretty good option. While it’s on a short week traveling cross country, they at least managed to dodge the early body clock game with an afternoon date in Carolina. And while the Panthers are on about the same level as the Seahawks, they have a terrible passing offense. That makes them a more attractive fade due to the lower variance involved. Baker Mayfield has been perhaps the worst QB in the league so far, ranking dead last in EPA+CPOE composite. Unless the Panthers keep handing him defensive TDs, Carolina should find it very tough to score.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 5

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Broncos-190~63%vs. IND1.2
Patriots-145~57%vs. DET1.2

How does trusting Bailey Zappe with your survivor entry sound? In all likelihood that’s what picking the Patriots this would week mean. Brian Hoyer went out injured and Mac Jones seems pretty unlikely to play two weeks after he sustained a high ankle sprain. Zappe wasn’t completely hopeless (against a really tough defense) and this Detroit defense just allowed 48 to the Seahawks.

Keep an eye on the status of D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown here. Their returns would significantly boost Detroit’s chances.

More intriguing might be the Broncos. Yet again, they did not wind up with a result commensurate with their offensive efficiency. They gained 7.6 YPA dropping back against the Raiders. Mike Boone would have boosted that number (and the one on the scoreboard) had he not dropped a layup long pass on one of Denver’s final drives.

The Colts once again looked pretty terrible in falling behind big to the Titans. Matt Ryan on the road against tight coverage does not sound like a recipe for a rebound. With so many big favorites on the board, you can rest assured almost nobody else will click Denver.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 5.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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