NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 5 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 4, 2021 - Last Updated on October 6, 2021
NFL survivor week 5

Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for NFL fans in recent years. Big brands like DraftKings and Circa are among those offering monster prizes in 2021. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL survivor Week 5 plays.

Remember that you must plan for the long term, and you must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.

Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value. Plus, avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

Claim Your $1,050 Bonus at DraftKings Sportsbook

NFL Survivor Week 5: The Five Big Favorites

Moneylines below from DraftKings Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid. Note that pick percentages are not available early Monday and will be added to this piece at a later time.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Buccaneers-510~80%vs. MIA21.1
Patriots-435~78%@ HOU20.5
Vikings-350~74%vs. DET15.4
Ravens-320~73%vs. IND7.7
Cowboys-310~72%vs. NYG20.4

Unlike the past two weeks, Week 5 does not feature any 90% layups for survivor players. They’ll have to make do with a max of only 80% should they go with the top market-expected victory, the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Miami likely vaulted toward the top of some players’ fade lists after looking absolutely horrible at home against a beatable Colts team in Week 4. The Dolphins mustered 3 points and a very ugly 4.1 yards per play. Their passing attack looks pretty toothless with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.

However, will the Bucs even be a top-three play this week? Many opportunities exist to use them down the line, while a couple of other favorites look primed to be the top chalk in Week 5.

First, Tampa’s Week 4 opponent, the Patriots. They looked pretty impressive, especially on defense in the close loss to Tom Brady. Mac Jones stared into the face of some fearsome blitzes and did not wilt, making the Bucs sweat until the last competitive snap.

And they get a team that everyone is probably circling to fade. Nobody looked worse than the Texans in Week 4. The Davis Mills experience — 4 INTs and a 0.8 QBR — hit the cataclysmic lows his biggest detractors predicted. Tyrod Taylor can’t return for at least one more week. So, fading while the Texans are at their nadir makes sense, especially with the Pats only favored big twice the rest of the year (Week 7 and Week 17).

The other clear buy spot: Minnesota. They get Detroit at home and aren’t projected to be this big of a favorite the rest of the year.

Dallas and Baltimore make sense as pivots off of these clear chalk sides for those looking to straddle between safe and popular. However, Circa players should likely save Dallas since they should be favored at home on Thanksgiving, when pickings will be slim.

Two Shorter Favorites To Consider

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Cardinals-25068%vs. SF0.9
Raiders-22566%vs. CHI3.6

If you’re looking to get away from all of the top plays, there are still a couple of semi-safe favorites that should get Ws for NFL Week 5 survivor players.

One would have been hard-pressed to imagine the Cardinals being solid favorites over the 49ers before the start of the season. But, this is the timeline in which we find ourselves, and things have turned in Arizona’s favor in more ways than one.

Not only have they performed about as well as anyone could have imagined, but the 49ers lost starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo to a calf injury. Highly touted draft pick Trey Lance took the field for his first extended action. In six non-garbage possessions, the Niners got three first downs with one coming on an incredible blown coverage that would have resulted in a TD by most high school teams.

It just doesn’t look like he’s ready and Arizona on the road looks like too big a task.

The Raiders also likely get a green signal-caller at home when the Bears come to town. After how well Justin Fields played this week — 10.3 yards per pass — it seems tough to imagine the Bears can send him back to the pine even if Andy Dalton is healthy.

But, the Raiders present some of the same pass rush issues that the Browns did when they ravaged the Chicago offense in Week 3. The Bears tackles simply looked overmatched, and the Raiders defensive front has looked shockingly good so far. Fields could find himself overwhelmed again.

Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options for NFL Survivor Week 5

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Titans-20064%@ JAC3.9
Falcons-18062%vs. NYJ (London)2.3

Those looking to go farther off the board can consider Tennessee and Atlanta.

The Titans are coming off of an ugly loss to the Jets but had to play without their two star WRs, Julio Jones and AJ Brown. Keep an eye on the injury report to make sure they’re back. You likely don’t want to touch this team as the roster looks currently. That’s particularly true with the Jags coming into this game at home and on extra rest.

On the positive side, ownership here figures to be extremely low even with the Titans decently favored. Nobody wants to follow the thousands who went bust fading the Jets in Week 4. Plus, most people probably plan to use the Titans as huge favorites against Houston (Week 11) or Jacksonville (Week 14).

Speaking of fading the Jets, you can do that with the Falcons this week if you don’t believe in the signs of life Zach Wilson showed.

Only brave souls will go this route, though. Even if you for some reason have a ton of confidence in Atlanta, the game takes place in London. You never know how the long travel and general uniqueness of London week will affect teams.

Still, the market only favors Atlanta in two more games all year. You can save some ammo by using them here.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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