NFL Survivor Week 4 Picks, Win Probability Tool, Free-To-Enter $5000 Second-Chance Pool

NFL Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines.com will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 4 picks, which feature the 49ers as the biggest favorites among a group of several attractive options. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 4 odds.

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Second-Chance Pro Football Survivor: Free Entry & $5000 Prize

Don’t forget: TheLines.com’s second chance survivor begins this week!

NFL Survivor Week 3 Recap

Even though two of the biggest favorites have yet to play this week — the Bills and Bengals — absolute carnage has already hit once again. The Browns, Raiders, and Bucs all lost as sizable favorites. In fact, they’re the three most popular picks in the big Circa contest that have played, meaning more than 50% of the pool is already out.

Some leagues will practically be in the endgame already if Cincinnati loses as well.

NFL Survivor Week 4: Top Projected Win Percentages

Here are some NFL Survivor picks reminders:

• You must plan for the long term.
• You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
• Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
• Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

NFL Survivor Week 4 Picks: The Obvious Chalk

The 49ers are the biggest favorites by a large margin. New England didn’t look capable of standing up to a strong opponent on the road in Week 3. There isn’t much to say here unless the 49ers continue to be inundated with injuries (Trent Williams had a brief scare on Sunday). They should win, so contestants will just have to weigh their future value as they obviously have quite a bit. It may be worth pivoting if your pool overwhelmingly selects San Francisco.

That leaves two other big favorites that look likely to be quite popular, the Jets and the Chiefs.

The Jets have modest future value, but they look very unlikely to be favored bigger than this from here on out. They’re probably going to be the heaviest chalk in most pools, assuming folks passed on the Thursday night spot.

As for the Chiefs, they suddenly look much more attractive than they would have a few days ago. Justin Herbert went down injured and didn’t finish the loss to Pittsburgh. Without Herbert, the Chargers are probably close to dead even at home against Kansas City. Monitor that one, as the Chiefs will move to much bigger favorites if he can’t go. Herbert was in a boot after and appears to have a pretty severe ankle sprain.

Herbert being announced out would probably make the Jets an even more attractive play as it might bleed some ownership over to the Chiefs.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

Signs of life in Carolina! Predictably, the insertion of Andy Dalton into the starting lineup significantly juiced the Panthers offense. No longer will they represent a free space for survivor pick purposes. We’ll see how the Bengals look on Monday night. But picking the Bengals on the road doesn’t look especially exciting, although their offense may return to shipshape if Tee Higgns is back and looking like his old self.

The team that stands out here is Arizona. PoolGenius doesn’t project them as a bigger favorite the rest of the season. The only other spot that looks attractive is hosting New England, but that isn’t until Week 16. At the rate survivor is moving this year, smaller pools are surely favored to end before then.

Dallas looks somewhat similar. They have more games as bigger favorites late in the season than the Cardinals, but they won’t be in play again until Week 12 at Washington. Road division games are typically some of the most dangerous spots for favorites, though.

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One Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 4 Picks

None of the smaller favorites really make sense this week, especially with the number of choices at the top and the fact that many (most?) survivor contests won’t see the end of the season.

If people insist on digging very deep, playing the Titans may not be the worst ever in very large pools. They might face a third-string quarterback after Skylar Thompson went down injured in Week 3. If he can’t recover, that would leave practice squad fodder Snoop Huntley or Tim Boyle as Miami’s starter.

But you can’t trust a bad quarterback on the road any farther than you can throw him, and Will Levis certainly falls into the bad bucket.

My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 4 Picks

With so many attractive options, this week largely comes down to pool size and what’s available for your opposition. It’s hard to go wrong with any of the top teams, although that hasn’t stopped myriad upsets thus far.

I’d be tempted to play Arizona in many pools. Survivor players in smaller pools that are already close to the endgame should probably stick to the chalk, but in bigger contests, Arizona makes sense against a Washington team that can’t really stop anybody.

Good luck with NFL Survivor Week 4 picks.

Compare NFL Moneyline Odds

The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.

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