NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 4 Win Probabilities Tool
NFL Survivor picks have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. DraftKings is one of the sports betting sites that offers pools as well throughout the season, not just before Week 1. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options and teams most likely to win. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 4 plays, which feature yet another potential spot to fade the Cardinals.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides extremely useful data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
NFL Survivor Week 3 Recap
Major, major congratulations if you made it through Week 3. More than 50% of the Circa field busted. In most contests, 40% or more of the fields selected the Jaguars. The Ravens and Cowboys also eliminated tons of entries, the latter losing in shocking fashion as a double-digit favorite to the feisty Cardinals.
Week 4 has a couple of what look like layups with top teams facing overmatched opposition. But then again, that’s what the Cowboys looked like, so you really never know for sure.
Here are some survivor reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
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NFL Survivor Week 4: The Obvious Chalk
Moneylines below from BetMGM. Pick percentages via PoolGenius as of Sept. 26.
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Pick% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -900 | ~86% | vs. ARI | 35 |
| Chiefs | -450 | ~78% | @ NYJ | Try PoolGenius! |
Two seemingly great spots exist this week. However, both have obvious drawbacks. If you made it to Week 4, you probably already used the 49ers and the Chiefs, and if you somehow haven’t, you’ll have plenty of chances down the road. Particularly in the Circa contest, where both teams have holiday games, it makes sense to keep one or both in your back pocket.
In a smaller pool, the 49ers look like a clear play. Their next six weeks are quite tough and don’t present any clear opportunities to fire the 49ers. By the time you’re looking to play San Francisco potentially — Week 11 hosting Tampa Bay — smaller pools could be wrapped up.
The Chiefs have Denver at home in Week 6. They’re a fine pivot away from San Francisco this week if you’re worried about your entire pool taking the 49ers.
TheLInes NFL Survivor Podcast: Week 4
Keep an eye out here for TheLines’ NFL survivor podcast, which will be posted Wednesday on our YouTube channel. Just search TheLinesUS on YouTube to find it and subscribe for free.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Pick% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -300 | ~72% | vs. WAS | Try PoolGenius! |
| Cowboys | -300 | ~72% | vs. NE | 5% |
Washington may have had a couple of nice games starting 2-0, but they showed their true colors against a real pass rush facing the Bills in Week 2. Buffalo overwhelmed them up front and harassed Sam Howell into a slew of mistakes, and if anyone can replicate that strategy, it’s probably the Eagles.
The best spots to use the Eagles aren’t until Weeks 16 and 17, when they host the Giants and Cardinals, respectively. It could be now or never, especially in smaller pools.
Dallas hosts the Giants in Week 10 and the Commanders in Week 12, the latter obviously of particular importance to Circa players since it’s part of the Thanksgiving slate.
Either of these teams probably makes an acceptable pivot from the top two. Be sure to look at the availability of each of the four top favorites in your pool.
- Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord with more than 4,000 community members and our staff sharing betting ideas every day. Go to the #roles server to get push notifications to the Discord app from TheLines.com staff when they lock in a bet.
Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 4
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Pick% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | -210 | ~65% | vs. LV | Try PoolGenius! |
| Vikings | -175 | ~61% | @ CAR | 5% |
| Broncos | -165 | ~60% | @ CHI | Try PoolGenius! |
| Steelers | -165 | ~60% | @ HOU | Try PoolGenius! |
| Saints | -160 | ~59% | vs. TB | Try PoolGenius! |
Most of these teams have a little more win equity than the ones usually featured here. However, they all look meaningfully less likely to win than the teams listed above.
Minnesota and Denver jump out right away, just in terms of future schedules. Both teams have brutal stretches coming up, featuring three games against Kansas City between them, San Francisco, and other playoff hopefuls for the most part.
Daring to trust Russell Wilson and the Broncos on the road takes real courage. But, nobody has looked worse than Chicago so far, which figures to occupy place No. 32 in TheLines’ NFL power rankings.
And keep an eye on the Panthers QB situation. If Andy Dalton draws another start, this probably gets a bit less attractive. He had the offense moving and scoring points even if the team wound up blown out again. A return from Bryce Young figures to help Minnesota’s chances.
Pittsburgh also has quite a difficult schedule. But at Houston, which looked spry in defeating Jacksonville on the road? Week 13 (home against Arizona) looks like the spot for the Steelers, at least in larger pools that will play deep into the season.
Likewise for the Chargers hosting Chicago in Week 8. And divisional high-scoring matchups don’t have a lot of appeal in Survivor.
Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 4.
Compare NFL MoneylIne Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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