NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 4 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on September 27, 2021
NFL survivor week 4

Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for NFL fans in recent years. Big brands like DraftKings and Circa are among those offering monster prizes in 2021. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL survivor Week 4 plays.

Remember that you must plan for the long term, and you must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.

Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value. Plus, avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

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NFL Survivor Week 4: The One Super-Obvious Chalk

Moneylines below from DraftKings Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid. Note that pick percentages are not available early Monday and will be added to this piece at a later time.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Bills-1250~89%vs. HOU37.2

Everything in Week 4 of NFL survivor basically comes down to one question: do you use the Bills or not?

If your only goal was to make it through this one week, the Bills represent the most incredibly obvious play of the year. They’re incredible favorites, a number rarely seen in the NFL. College football fans might not blink at a favorite, but that number hearkens back to the Jaguars of 2013.

And you won’t find much reason to expect a result other than Bills walkover here. The Texans, while they played competitive football with Tyrod Taylor taking the snaps, had to turn to unheralded rookie Davis Mills. While Mills didn’t embarrass himself in his first start, he still led the team to 3.9 yards per play. The team seems rather hesitant to let him air it out, which only decreases the risk of an upset as they likely need all the positive variance they can find.

The Bills, after an early hiccup against the Steelers, appear to have rounded into form after thumping the Dolphins and Football Team the past two weeks. They should definitely roll.

The issue comes with future value here. The Bills have tons of easy games later in the season. They figure to be favorites of 7+ at least five times if not up to eight. And Circa players may want to save them for a potential play on Thanksgiving. Even as projected small road favorites against New Orleans, the Bills could be in play considering the other two Thanksgiving games should have tight lines as well.

Last week, upwards of 50% of some survivor pools got through without a sweat on the massively favored Broncos. Expect something along those lines here.

The Jumble Of Favorites Just Below The Mega-Chalk

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Titans-365~75%@ NYJ24.9
Saints-350~74%vs. NYG10.4
Bengals-335~73%vs. JAC16.7
Packers-290~71%vs. PIT2
Chiefs-280~71%@ PHI3.4
Buccaneers-265~70%@ NE2.2
Rams-265~70%vs. ARI0.2

It looks like the Jaguars and the Jets will be everyone’s favorite punching bags in survivor this year. Expect them to show up here every week unless something drastic changes.

The Jets in particular appear to be a catastrophic level of bad. It’s hard to see how this team will win a single game, so clicking the other side of them as often as possible seems likely to get a ton of entries deep in survivor. Week 4 looks no different with the Titans set to roll through this defense.

If there’s any glimmer of hope, it’s that the Jets have faced three tough defenses to start the year. QB Zach Wilson has looked completely overwhelmed by the speed of the NFL, but the Titans have allowed 6.1 yards per play, 26th in the league. Maybe he can get some traction this week.

You won’t find Cincinnati on this list too often, so this looks like a golden opportunity to get one through without using any of the trump cards like Chiefs, Bucs and Bills.

The Jags did play more competitive football this week, forcing several punts from a high-powered Cardinals offense. It’s no layup but the Bengals likely won’t be favored this big the rest of the year, though they do play at the Jets.

Rams clearly look like the most aggressive of these options. Their game against Arizona should turn into a high-variance shootout, and they also have three games down the line where they rate to be double-digit favorites. Use with caution.

Three Sneaky, Contrarian Options for NFL Survivor Week 4

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Bears-15560.8%vs. DET0.4

With so many solid favorites this week, there doesn’t appear to be much need to go contrarian. But, if you’re wanting to avoid the most popular spots, perhaps we could interest you in the Chicago Bears?

The best available price of should put them on the radar for those looking for off-the-grid plays.

Coming off a game in which the Bears put up one — yes, one — net passing yard, you can rest assured nobody will be in a hurry to stake their survival on these guys. But, especially in leagues that require double picks down the line, you will have to take some nasty spots. If you can save the good teams for that later double-pick gauntlet, you’ll have an edge over your rivals. Using teams like the Bears can enable that.

You won’t find many better spots than at home against the Lions.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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