NFL Survivor Pool Week 3 Picks & Win Probability Tool
NFL Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines.com will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 3 picks, which feature some surprising teams like the Bengals and Raiders as the biggest favorites. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 3 odds.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
Second-Chance Pro Football Survivor: Free Entry & $5000 Prize
NFL Survivor Week 2 Recap
It was another bloody week in Survivor as the biggest favorite lost for the second straight time. This time, the Ravens did the bulk of the damage, losing at home to the Raiders despite a significant advantage in the box score. They settled for too many field goals and the defense wilted down the stretch, unable to cover Brock Bowers and Davante Adams.
The Cowboys, Jaguars, and Colts also contributed to numerous survivor entries busting, including my own. Thanks, Mike Zimmer.
In total, about 35% of the field busted once again in the big Circa contest.
NFL Survivor Week 2: Top Projected Win Percentages
Here are some NFL Survivor picks reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Popularity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -360 | ~77.1% | vs. WAS | Subscribe |
| 49ers | -340 | ~75.1% | @ LAR | Subscribe |
| Raiders | -340 | ~75.1% | vs. CAR | Subscribe |
| Buccaneers | -305 | ~73.6% | vs. DEN | Subscribe |
| Browns | -300 | ~73% | vs. NYG | Subscribe |
NFL Survivor Week 3 Picks: The Obvious Chalk
Two teams stand out from the crowd this week, one in which there are a ton of big favorites. Survivor players will certainly have options.
The Las Vegas Raiders are foremost among them. While it’s only Week 3, we may already start to see default survivor strategy pivot to whoever is playing the Carolina Panthers.
To say the Panthers have had a rough start would be vastly understating things. Unless (until?) Andy Dalton is elevated into the starting QB role, touchdowns look like they’ll just be a foreign concept to the Panthers. They simply don’t look capable of scoring 20 points in an NFL game. (Editor’s note: the Panthers elevated Dalton into the starting role a few hours after this article published.)
Meanwhile, the Raiders have low-hanging fruit for improvement. They’ll just keep getting better if Antonio Pierce is willing to lean into his passing game. They should win easily at home, and they have virtually no future value.
Same for the Cleveland Browns. They play a tough schedule, with PoolGenius not projecting them above 60% for the rest of the season. At home against the Giants represents by far the best spot to use them. However, this offense will make it tough to run away from anyone, so it will likely still be a sweat.
The Bucs also look pretty good, especially in smaller pools. They host Denver, then have a gauntlet schedule until Week 12 (@NYG).
Three of the other big favorites — the Jets, 49ers, and Bengals — all have easy games next week. Cincinnati wins the Carolina lottery. The 49ers and Jets get home games against the Patriots and Broncos, respectively. That will keep their ownership down this week.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
Currently, the market is projecting the Seahawks to face the Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins at home. Skylar Thompson has been really bad as an NFL QB, and traveling across the country to face Seattle in one of the tougher home fields is a tough ask.
Many have already used the Seahawks in the first two weeks, so they’ll be a pretty attractive spot so long as Tagovailoa does sit, which seems highly likely. PoolGenius likes them a bit more in Week 5 hosting the Giants, but this should work too.
The Bills host the Jaguars in a revenge spot after falling to them in London last year. If you don’t use the Bills now, it’s probably either Week 7 (vs. TEN) or one of the New England games (Weeks 16 and 18). Still, the Jaguars represent a solid opponent, one that could easily be 2-0 had things broken differently over the first two weeks.
Overall, there aren’t a lot of medium favorites this week.
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One Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 3 Picks
As for contrarian options, there isn’t much here either in a week with a lot of chalk.
Tennesee is really the only team that stands out. PoolGenius doesn’t even project them to be favored the entire rest of the season, and they get to host Malik Willis and the Packers in Willis’ return to his draft team. Willis performed well in a minimized role in Week 2 as Josh Jacobs ran over the Colts. However, that will be a much tougher ask this week against a very stout Titans defense. Willis having to make plays on the road is much different than handing off to Jacobs at home.
My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 3 Picks
If your pool is heavy on Las Vegas, pivoting to Cleveland or Tampa Bay makes sense to me. The Buccaneers didn’t really do that much to earn the win over Detroit, so I’m a bit leery of them, but it’s hard to see how Bo Nix can make anything happen on the road against a solid team. Staking my survivor on the Browns would make me feel a little ill, but their defense should be able to win them the game against the Giants.
Good luck with NFL Survivor Week 3 picks.
Compare NFL Moneyline Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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