NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 3 Win Probabilities Tool
NFL Survivor picks have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. DraftKings is one of the sports betting sites that offers pools as well throughout the season, not just before Week 1. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options and teams most likely to win. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 3 plays, highlighted by the Jaguars in a comfy home divisional spot.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides extremely useful data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
NFL Survivor Week 2 Recap
Congratulations if you made it through Week 2. About 17% of Circa entries busted out, mainly due to the incredible collapse the Broncos authored.
Week 3 has a slew of large favorites, so there will be no shortage of options for survivor players. Fading Arizona continues to be profitable but sweaty. We’ll see if that continues in Week 3, as they’re massive underdogs facing what appears to be a Cowboys juggernaut.
Here are some survivor reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
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NFL Survivor Week 3: The Obvious Chalk
Moneylines below from BetMGM. Pick percentages via PoolGenius as of Sept. 19.
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Pick% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -750 | ~85% | vs. CHI | 22 |
| Cowboys | -750 | ~85% | @ ARI | 19 |
| 49ers | -450 | ~78% | vs. NYG | 15 |
| Jaguars | -450 | ~78% | vs. HOU | 21 |
| Ravens | -400 | ~76% | vs. IND | 7 |
| Dolphins | -300 | ~72% | vs. DEN | 4 |
| Bills | -275 | ~70% | @ WAS | 2 |
| Eagles | -275 | ~70% | @ TB | 1 |
It would take a real stunner for any of the Cowboys, Chiefs or 49ers to lose in Week 3. Their opponents all look to be pretty much in shambles, with the Giants stunningly needing an incredible comeback to save countless survivor entries against the Cardinals.
However, each has tons of great spots left, and notably for Circa players, each figures prominently into the tough, small holiday “weeks.” Expect to read that sentence often going forward.
Only a hair further down, the Jaguars look like an attractive play. PoolGenius doesn’t currently project them to be this big of favorites the rest of the year. Yes, the defense has gotten off to an ugly start, but are CJ Stroud and Nico Collins the ones to exploit it?
Baltimore may also move up this list in terms of win probability as more info emerges about the Anthony Richardson injury. The young QB took a blow to the head and exited the win against Houston. With the caveat that Gardner Minshew is as capable a backup as you’ll find, the Ravens are in the same situation as the Jags. PoolGenius doesn’t project them this big a favorite for the rest of the year. But keep an eye on Richardson’s availability.
Miami is also worthy of consideration as a perhaps under-the-radar favorite. They have a difficult schedule, and we want to use them while Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and clicking with his receivers. However, on that note, another injury to track is that of Jaylen Waddle. This receiving corps is thin, so losing Waddle would be a heavy blow.
THELINES NFL SUrVIVOR PODCAST: Week 3
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Pick% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | -225 | ~68% | vs. TEN | 0 |
| Seahawks | -225 | ~68% | vs. CAR | 6 |
| Lions | -210 | ~64% | vs. ATL | 1 |
| Bengals | -190 | ~63% | vs. LAR | 0 |
None of these teams looks particularly appealing as a pivot off-the-top options.
Seattle probably has the weakest opponent in the Panthers at home. However, one critical factor should keep most folks off the Seahawks: they have Arizona at home in Week 7, which looks like an incredibly tough week. They’re projected as the biggest favorites on the board, although that will also likely create a bottleneck in the contests.
The Bengals should absolutely win at home with their backs starting to get close to the wall. However, Joe Burrow continues to perform poorly, albeit against tough competition. But it just makes more sense to use the Bengals when Burrow looks like himself and puts his calf injury behind him.
Browns/Titans figures to be an ugly affair that we shouldn’t want a piece of on a short week. And good luck figuring out this Lions bunch.
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Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 3
Nobody really fits the contrarian bill this week. All of the short favorites are pretty solid teams that have much more comfortable situations shaping up later in the season.
Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 3.
Compare NFL MoneylIne Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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