NFL Survivor Pool Week 2 Picks & Win Probability Tool
NFL Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines.com will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 2 picks, which feature the Ravens as the big favorites and the Chargers as a potentially popular play. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 2 odds.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
NFL Survivor Week 1 Recap
I warned readers heading into Week 1 not to fall into the trap of selecting the chalky Bengals, and Cincinnati made me look smart by imploding at home against Jerod Mayo’s men. For what seems like the umpteenth straight year, the Bengals have started off the season looking disjointed on offense, and that caused an exceptionally short survivor season for countless players across the globe.
About 40% of the field busted in the big Circa contest, with the Bengals accounting for the vast majority (about 35%) of those.
The Falcons also accounted for a small chunk of Week 1 losers. They illustrate the danger of buying into offseason hype surrounding a QB returning from injury. Kirk Cousins looked extremely limited in his return from an Achilles tear.
NFL Survivor Week 2: Top Projected Win Percentages
Here are some NFL Survivor picks reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Pick% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -450 | ~80.4% | vs. LV | Subscribe |
| Cowboys | -250 | ~72.4% | vs. NO | Subscribe |
| Eagles | -275 | ~71.7% | vs. ATL | Subscribe |
| Lions | -275 | ~71.7% | vs. TB | Subscribe |
| Texans | -270 | ~71.3% | vs. CHI | Subscribe |
NFL Survivor Week 2 Picks: The Obvious Chalk
Baltimore is the biggest favorite of the week by quite a bit. They host the Raiders on extra rest, and Las Vegas appears to not have an NFL-level coaching staff in place. Despite having numerous chances to win the game, they wound up losing by double-digits thanks to turnovers and poor decision-making by Antonio Pierce.
I’m unsure how popular the Ravens will be. They have extremely enticing spots hosting Washington and Denver in Week 6 and Week 9, respectively. In Week 9 in particular they are far and away the biggest favorite, with Circa players especially likely to select them thanks to the Chiefs’ presence as another big favorite (K.C. plays on both holiday slates and thus players will look to save them).
If your pool stays off the Ravens, they make sense here.
Another team that bears mentioning is the Chargers. Initially, it didn’t appear that playing on the road in Carolina would represent a playable spot. L.A. was expected to be a short favorite.
Unfortunately for Panthers fans, based on Week 1, a year two leap doesn’t appear to be in the cards for Bryce Young. Carolina probably had the most inept Week 1 performance of any team. The Saints — a team with a win total of 7.5 — laughed them off the field.
The Chargers are now one of the bigger favorites. They don’t have much future value. PoolGenius currently only projected them as bigger favorites hosting Denver, and that isn’t until Week 16. Smaller pools will likely wrap up before then.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
Detroit, Houston, Dallas, Philadelphia, and Kansas City are the other medium-sized home favorites. All are expected to be solid favorites numerous times throughout the year, so all of them have a decent amount of future value.
Houston has the diciest schedule of the bunch. They play at New England and they host Tennessee, both during the middle portion of the season, so they’ll be in play both of those weeks. Hosting Chicago did not initially look like an appealing game, but the Bears offense managed an anemic 2.8 YPP against Tennessee. It looks like growing pains are ahead for Caleb Williams.
Philadelphia is the lone team of these that doesn’t have a holiday schedule, so they may prove popular in Circa. Picking against the Falcons does look like a good move at this point. Cousins was clearly limited in his return, with the Falcons opting to stay almost exclusively in shotgun/pistol formations. This negated some of Cousins’ favored play-action sets that bore fruit in Minnesota.
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Three Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 2 Picks
There are several lower-ranked favorites that make sense this week.
Indianapolis may have gotten the gift of the week. Jordan Love looks nearly certain to miss Week 2, leaving either Malik Willis or Sean Clifford as the expected starter. We’ll put this gently and note that neither player has much history of success in the NFL. The Colts are still on the road against an otherwise solid team, but this should be a win, and PoolGenius doesn’t project them as a bigger favorite the rest of the year.
In Week 1, the Seahawks played a stronger game than the final score indicated. They significantly outgained the Broncos (5.1 YPP to 3.3), with Mike Macdonald’s defense essentially shutting down the Denver passing game completely. Facing New England on the road, it’s a difficult spot to trust, but the Seahawks have little future value.
Those who want to dive very deep may consider Washington. Aside from hosting Carolina in Week 7, they won’t be in play the rest of the season. They may have the worst defense in the NFL, but they may not have a better chance of getting stops than facing the Giants at home.
My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 2 Picks
I have tentatively penciled in Dallas this week. Although they’ll have some holiday value for me in the Circa contest, I’m looking to pivot off of the chalk there (Chiefs, Cowboys) in hopes those selections will be bottlenecks for the rest of the contestants.
New Orleans’ Week 1 performance gives me some pause, but I’m not ready to completely sell my priors that this is a bad team. Carolina may simply represent a walkover anytime they play on the road against a team that isn’t bottom of the barrel.
I’m also going to look hard at the Chargers and Colts. I simply don’t believe the Packers have another NFL-caliber QB on their roster. Anthony Richardson has quite a bit of variance built into his performance, as he appears to currently heavily rely on deep balls. But I may look to pounce on a backup QB here. My Chargers interest depends heavily on expected popularity.
Good luck with NFL Survivor Week 2 picks.
Compare NFL Moneyline Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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