NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 2 Win Probabilities Tool
NFL Survivor picks have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. DraftKings is one of the sports betting sites that offers pools as well throughout the season, not just before Week 1. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options and teams most likely to win. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 2 plays, where the Bills, 49ers, Eagles and Cowboys may be popular plays.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides extremely useful data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Free access ends Monday but discounts are available on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
NFL Survivor Week 1 Recap
Congratulations if you made it through Week 1. About 20% of Circa entries busted out, with the Vikings and Seahawks providing the bulk of the damage. A slightly higher percentage was eliminated in the national ESPN pool.
Where Week 1 always brings its own challenges, Week 2 has its own dilemmas for 2023. With Cardinals odds only showing a medium underdog, is this a week to pull the trigger on one of the big guns? Usual suspects populate the top of the board. And just how much confidence/ownership will the Giants have against those Cardinals after a putrid performance on national TV?
Here are some survivor reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
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NFL Survivor Week 2: The Obvious Chalk
Moneylines below from BetMGM. Pick percentages via PoolGenius as of Sept. 12.
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Pick% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -450 | ~%79 | vs. LV | 28 |
| Eagles | -350 | ~75% | vs. MIN | 9 |
| 49ers | -350 | ~75% | @ LAR | 11 |
All three of these teams come with fairly obvious pluses and minuses.
On the plus side, all are very likely to win. On paper, the 49ers and Bills would appear to have slightly friendlier matchups, with the caveat that we haven’t seen the Bills play an actual game.
In the negative sense, all three have heaps of future value. They are favored big in too many spots to highlight any particular ones, but suffice to say, every survivor player will have ample opportunity to use the Bills, 49ers and Eagles and feel pretty comfortably about it.
Those playing in smaller pools might more sensibly select one of these teams. After all, making it through 18 weeks likely won’t be necessary. For those playing the longer game, we move on to…
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Pick% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | -225 | ~%66 | vs. SEA | 6 |
| Giants | -210 | ~65% | @ ARI | 11 |
| Broncos | -190 | ~63% | vs. WAS | 2 |
| Bengals | -185 | ~62% | vs. BAL | 0 |
| Chargers | -175 | ~61% | @ TEN | 3 |
| Cowboys | -175 | ~61% | vs. NYJ | 17 |
| Saints | -175 | ~61% | @ CAR | 3 |
Editor’s note: this article was written before the Jets lost Aaron Rodgers for the season.
Obviously, the Giants will be on everyone’s radar this week. In what will no doubt be a recurring theme throughout this season, we’ll always discuss the Cardinals’ opponents.
The Cardinals didn’t embarrass themselves against Washington, although it was hardly a performance that could be called decent. In a sense, that game probably sets a fair expectation for this team. If the opponent pukes on themselves and turns the ball over multiple times, the Cardinals can spring an upset or two.
Could the Giants fall into that category? Jones leaned strongly conservative last season, disaster against Dallas on SNF notwithstanding. He posted the second-shortest average depth of target out of QBs with 200+ plays. And speaking of that complete demolition, will that shake the confidence of anyone who had originally planned to click New York?
Currently, PoolGenius doesn’t project the Giants as favorites the rest of the year.
Denver finds itself in a similar spot. Although the Broncos are projected favorites in Week 13 (at Houston), that’s the only comparable spot to select them. If your pool gravitates toward the Giants, Denver makes for a strong pivot.
The only other appealing spot is perhaps the Saints. Bryce Young looked really rough in Week 1, and the Saints bring a similar level of aggression and veteran readiness on defense.
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Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 2
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Pick% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | -155 | ~%58 | vs. CHI | 2 |
| Texans | -120 | ~52% | vs. IND | 0 |
Tampa Bay actually makes for a fairly intriguing down-ballot option. They played pretty well against the Vikings, and they get a Chicago bunch that looks minimally improved if at all from a season that earned the No. 1 pick.
In terms of future value, the only other spots that hold any appeal for the Bucs are home against the Panthers (Week 13) and at Houston (Week 9).
I will close by saying if you have the courage to select the Texans in survivor, you’re a braver man or woman than I am. CJ Stroud managed to keep his head above water for most of the matchup against the Ravens. But a patchwork offensive line faces a veteran defensive front here, and that could spell trouble.
Certainly, there figure to be no other spots to try and select Houston, but a team that far down in NFL power rankings probably doesn’t belong in your survivor plans.
Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 2.
Compare NFL MoneylIne Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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