NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 17 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on December 27, 2022
NFL Survivor week 17

NFL survivor entries continued to fall in Week 16. The Titans and Lions likely contributed most heavily to this, and the Steelers nearly lost to end the big Circa pool, now down to three entries fighting for over $6 million. For the lucky very few, on to NFL survivor Week 17.

If you are still alive, our congratulations. Your NFL survivor pool should be close to the endgame at this point. Each week, you must try to get inside the heads of your opponents. Which sides do they have available and which ways will they gravitate? One good week can win you the pool now, so be extra diligent.

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Be sure to scroll to the bottom to compare NFL Week 17 moneylines and bonus offers across sportsbooks in your state.

Editor’s Note

NFL Survivor Week 17: The Obvious Chalk

Moneylines below from Caesars Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid as of Dec. 27.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Chiefs-900~86%vs. DEN3.4
Cowboys-480~79%@ TEN1.1

If you somehow have either the Chiefs or Cowboys available, both enter the final week as strong favorites who will lose a bit of that steam in Week 18, in all likelihood. The Chiefs doing so from facing a tougher opponent away from home, the Cowboys doing so because there’s a decent chance their seed will be locked in.

The Chiefs won’t be taking the Broncos lightly after they nearly blew it last time. Plus, Denver appears to have quit, although we’ll see if the new coach can reinvigorate the team.

What once looked like a tough game for Dallas has become a likely rout. The Titans not only stink, with new QB Malik Willis completely unable to move the ball through the air, but they effectively have nothing to play for with the Week 18 showdown in Jacksonville determining their season’s fate.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Eagles-320~73%vs. NO4.6
Chargers-285~71%vs. LAR10.7
Lions-267~70%vs. CHI17.9
49ers-267~70%@ LV3.5
Giants-225~66%vs. IND10.2
Jaguars-210~65%@ HOU16.6

If you have the Chargers and Lions available, these look like fine options for Week 17. In both cases, you won’t want to use either team in Week 18. The Chargers may have a rest spot depending on how this week goes, while the Lions face the Packers on the road, with the Packers projected as decent favorites.

Detroit is in a good spot playing at home, where they’ve performed much better this season, against a Bears unit playing out the string. The Chargers get the suddenly-frisky Rams, but how much of the friskiness comes from the Broncos letting go of the rope?

Further interesting options – and ones many players likely have available – include the Jaguars and Giants.

The Jags get a Texans bunch that is playing competitive football down the stretch. Facing Tennessee at home for all the marbles in the final week, if you save the Jags, you’re at least getting one of the few spots guaranteed to bring out 100% effort. Using them against the Texans makes sense too, though.

The Giants may or may not get the Eagles backups in Week 18. Even if that happens, we’re talking about Gardner Minshew here, not Trace McSorley. Minshew moved the ball plenty on the Cowboys (8.9 YPA), and Nick Foles authored one of the worst QB games of the year on Monday Night Football. The better spot is here against the Colts, no matter what happens with Philly for next week.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 17

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Falcons-195~63%vs. ARI0.8

A few weeks ago, it would have sounded crazy to click on the Falcons in this spot. But, speaking of Trace McSorley, he may continue helming the offense for the Cardinals, depending on what happens with Colt McCoy. Even if McCoy plays, it’s not like he’s walking into a great situation.

Desmond Ridder actually showed signs of life in Week 16. After a dreadful debut, he passed for more than 200 yards outdoors against a solid Ravens defense– he even got a respectable 6.1 YPA. The nine points on the scoreboard belie his improved play, as the team blew it repeatedly in the red zone, but just getting there a bunch counts as progress.

It’s highly unlikely anyone has used the Falcons. But this is a golden opportunity to do so, especially if McSorley starts again.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 17.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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