NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 17 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on January 2, 2022
NFL survivor Week 17

Survivor pools have reached the end game, and TheLines is continuing to run through some of the best NFL Week 17 surivor options to help you win your pool.

Anyone left out there? The Chargers dropped the ball against the Texans despite massive market steam in their direction, and the Seahawks failed to close out the Bears. With those teams accounting for 40% of entries according to SurvivorGrid, it seems like most pools should have wrapped up.

In the big Circa contest, the Chargers and Cardinals accounted for seven of the 16 remaining entries busting.

As always at this point, you must factor in which sides will be most popular if you haven’t already. It’s time to go for the win. If you can cleanly project where the remaining players are going with their pick, do everything you can to avoid that side even if you think it’s a near lock.

Read on for NFL survivor Week 17 plays.

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NFL Survivor Week 17: Time To Click The Bears?

Moneylines below from DraftKings Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid. Note that pick percentages are not available early Monday and will be added to this piece at a later time.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Seattle Seahawks-320~73%vs. DET15.8
Chicago Bears-260~69%vs. NYG6.6
LA Chargers-250~68%vs. DEN3.7

The best option for NFL survivor Week 17, at least in terms of availability, looks like the Chicago Bears. That may not have been something you expected to hear, but the New York Giants offense has reached truly disgusting depths.

Since their Week 10 bye, they’ve surpassed 10 points just twice. In a 13-7 win against the Eagles, they got handed four turnovers and two more on downs. In a 37-21 loss to the Chargers, they scored 14 in the fourth with the Chargers asleep at the wheel up 30.

Per EPA/play, the Giants — in last by a lot during this time — are as far behind the 27th-ranked Jaguars as the Jags are behind the 15th-place Ravens. And these numbers include some Daniel Jones starts. He’s lost for the season.

As bad as the Bears have been, they’re still a professional team with professional QBs playing competitive professional games. Since there’s basically no chance you’ve used them, it’s a great time to take a rare shot on them as sizable favorites.

If you’d rather use their Week 16 opponent, the Seahawks, we couldn’t really blame you. The market is higher on them, they haven’t been big favorites often so they’re probably still in your bag, and they get the lowly Lions.

The Chargers also make for an attractive play if Drew Lock once again plays QB for Denver.

The Big Favorites You Probably Already Used

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
New England Patriots-1125~88%vs. JAC23.4
San Francisco 49ers-1000~87%vs. HOU15.9
Buffalo Bills-900~86%vs. ATL4.6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-720~84%@ NYJ6.5

There are plenty of huge favorites that are essentially layups this week. However, each of them is a very strong team that you likely already used if you’ve gotten this far. There’s not really much to say about these lopsided matchups, for the most part.

If you have these teams available, feel free to use them with very little reservation unless you expect your remaining few opponents to take these sides.

If you want to nitpick, there are a couple of slight concerns you might find. For Tampa Bay, injuries have hit a concerning level. In addition to the well-documented loss of several key weapons on offense, they’re now missing arguably their two best defensive players in Shaq Barrett and Lavonte David. Additionally, it wasn’t a problem this week, but they probably aren’t super-motivated right now. It seems unlikely they can pass three teams for the top seed, so their main goal is likely to preserve health of their remaining key players.

Also, the Texans look downright frisky at this point. Their upset of the Chargers was not some crazy fluke, as they moved the rock consistently. Davis Mills seems to have made a leap from worst QB taking snaps to at least passable NFL player.

If the 49ers don’t come to play, they risk finding themselves the second straight huge favorite to fall victim to this bunch.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option for NFL Survivor Week 17

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Philadelphia Eagles-190~63%@ WAS1.5

There isn’t much to parse at the bottom of the card that makes much sense. But, the Eagles can find their way onto some cards. We’ve highlighted them as an under-the-radar favorite several times in this space.

On the road against Washington, which Philly just mashed a couple of week ago, they can probably roll out the same game plan that saw them rush 41 times for 238 yards and a pair of scores.

In their past six, the Eagles have five basically sweat-free wins and covers. Their only slip-up came when they turned it over a bunch in the aforementioned Giants game. As long as they take care of the ball, they should win.

Good luck in NFL survivor Week 17.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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