NFL Survivor Week 16 Picks, Win Probability Tool: Falcons, Packers The Chalk

With NFL survivor pools reaching the endgame, TheLines.com’s Pro Football Survivor contest has seven entries left after starting with nearly 2,000 in the $10,000 pool. Five have advanced to Week 16, with the other two pending the Vikings on MNF. Let’s explore some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 16 picks. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 16 odds.

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NFL Survivor Week 15 Recap

Thus far, it’s looking like Week 15 was yet another rollover as the chalky second half of the season continues. Along with a possible sweep from the contestants in TheLines’ pool, the big Circa pool has seen just one entry go bust (49ers), although the Vikings, the most popular team, could change that.

Of course, Week 15 wasn’t without its sweats. The Commanders nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against the undermanned Saints, holding off a last-minute charge by stopping a winning two-point attempt.

NFL Survivor Week 16: Top Projected Win Percentages

Here are some reminders when it comes to NFL survivor picks:

• It would be best if you planned for the long term.
• You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
• Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
• Avoiding the week’s top pick lets you see the most significant chunk of your rivals knocked out.

Team	ML	Implied Win%	Opp.	Popularity
Bills	-850	~86.2%	vs. NE	Subscribe
Packers	-750	~85.2%	vs. NO	Subscribe
Falcons	-500	~80.7%	vs. NYG	Subscribe
Bengals	-325	~73.6%	vs. CLE	Subscribe
Ravens	-275	~70.8%	vs. PIT	Subscribe

NFL Survivor Week 16 Picks: The Obvious Chalk

Unlike the past couple of weeks, chalk won’t be defined as the biggest favorite in many pools.

There are teams with a higher implied win probability than the Falcons this week, but they probably aren’t as universally available. Nearly 90% of contestants in the big Circa contest still have the Falcons in their holster, and NFL games don’t get much easier than hosting the New York Giants.

Atlanta still gets the Panthers at home to finish the season. But they could be looking across the line at fourth-string QB Tim Boyle here.

Of course, we still have to ensure the Falcons get through MNF without significant injuries.

The Bills and Packers are also massive favorites. The Bills especially won’t be as widely available, and they close with three layups. Expect low ownership here, making them a tremendous option if you still have them.

This might be the last chance to use Green Bay. They still get Chicago at home, but that’s in Week 18, and the team might be locked into a wild card slot.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

The Arizona Cardinals head to Carolina to face a Panthers team that’s no longer the walkover it once was but still showcased its limitations by getting thrashed against Dallas. Arizona has no future value, as PoolGenius doesn’t project them to be favored in either of their following games. They’re in play here, even on the road, as short-ish favorites.

Minnesota might also be on the radar. They caught a substantial potential break, as Geno Smith’s status figures up in the air. He hurt his knee, and the team says the injury isn’t significant. However, he didn’t return to the game.

If Smith can’t go, Sam Howell playing behind a bad offensive line represents a flammable combo. Playing in Seattle is never a picnic, but the Vikings should be solid favorites in that scenario, and they’ll be under-owned after Week 15.

Another team that bears mentioning is Cincinnati, which may face a quarterback once buried on the depth chart. We’ll see if the Browns decide to move to Dorian Thompson-Robinson permanently. Either way, the Bengals are solid home favorites against Cleveland, and time is running out to click on them while they’re motivated by slim playoff hopes.

Since they close with Denver and Pittsburgh, they won’t be an attractive play after this week, even if they’re drawing live.

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One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 16 Picks

There aren’t many small favorites worth considering this week. The Las Vegas Raiders are favored in a pro football game, hosting the Jaguars. If you can stomach picking them, hats off to you, but I can’t envision a scenario where I’d get there aside from somehow knowing my last opponent had the other side.

My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 16 Picks

There’s a lot to choose from this week. The Falcons have a beatable enough defense, and Brian Daboll is still a good enough coach that I can’t completely shut the door on the idea that New York could spring a titanic upset.

Therefore, I’d prefer to go with Green Bay in a spot where I had both top non-Buffalo options available.

I’m not excited about any of the mid-tier options. I still think Bryce Young’s frisky enough that I wouldn’t want to be holding a Cardinals ticket on the road. They were a bit fortunate to run away from New England. And no matter who takes the snaps for Cleveland, I think they’re live to beat Cincinnati.

Good luck with your NFL survivor Week 16 picks.

Compare NFL Moneyline Odds

The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.

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