NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 16 Win Probabilities Tool

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated

NFL Survivor picks have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. DraftKings is one of the sports betting sites that offers pools throughout the season, not just before Week 1. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best Survivor options and teams most likely to win. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 16 plays, which feature the Denver Broncos in a rare role as solid favorites, hosting the Patriots. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 16 odds.

In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.

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NFL Survivor Week 15 Recap

Thanks to some small-ish favorites losing, just a few survivor entries fell by the wayside this week. The Titans, Packers, and Falcons likely torpedoed a few, although most people should have gotten through thanks to all the big favorites, plus the Saints and Rams winning.

NFL Survivor Week 16 will probably see most of the ownership split between the Broncos, Bears, and Packers. Perhaps some folks will still have the Rams in their bag, and they’ll also be a viable option. There are some free spaces at the top of the board, but as usual, most players have used these teams for this time of year.

Here are some NFL Survivor reminders:

  • You must plan for the long term.
  • You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
  • Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
  • Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

NFL Survivor Week 16: Projected Win Percentages

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Bills-750~85%@ LACSubscribe
Eagles-550~81%vs. NYGSubscribe
Chiefs-500~80%vs. LVSubscribe
Broncos-275~70%vs. NESubscribe
49ers-225~66%vs. BALSubscribe
Packers-225~66%@ CARSubscribe

The Obvious Chalk

All three of the top favorites look like shoo-ins to secure Week 16 wins, but the Bills have an especially easy assignment. They face Easton Stick and a Chargers bunch that allowed an incomprehensible 63 points to the Las Vegas Raiders. Perhaps there’s a dead cat bounce in there after firing Brandon Staley. But this team showed zero fight and may play without its only consistent source of offense (Keenan Allen).

The Chiefs also get the Chargers and a home game against the Bengals. But it’s possible they have seeding locked in for Week 18 in that Chargers matchup and will be resting.

Play the Chiefs now if you somehow still have them, as the Bills and Eagles both have more layups remaining.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

Many NFL Survivor players should still have the Broncos remaining. Their run of competence has involved beating mostly solid-to-good teams. Few games other than perhaps hosting Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the Browns held any survivor appeal.

Therefore, expect many remaining survivor players to target them this week. They get the Patriots at home. Although next week’s home game against the Chargers also looks tasty, there are many big favorites on the board in Week 17. With no shortage of options that week, many players will ride with the Broncos this week.

Unless your remaining pool looks like it will be heavy on Denver picks, the Broncos make sense.

The Packers and Bears also stand out as likely selections. Similar to the Broncos, aside from a home win over Brett Rypien, the Packers have reeled off wins without many survivor-friendly spots. They faltered against the Giants when many bought in. They should win in Carolina, but the Panthers’ defense has shown signs of life, ranking 12th in EPA/play since the bye back in Week 7.

With games left against Atlanta and Green Bay, this looks like Chicago’s last game as a decent favorite. However, the Cardinals looked fairly strong in battling the 49ers, moving the ball consistently. They’re not an easy out at this point for a team in Chicago’s class.

Broncos Upcoming Schedule

Seattle Seahawks 9 – 8 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – 7 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – 8 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 16

If you really have nothing else, maybe you could click on the New York Jets?

Would I advocate for trusting your survivor entry, which has made it through three months of the season, to a yet-to-be-named quarterback and a Jets offense that managed a heinous 1.9 YPP against the Dolphins? No, no, I would not.

But at the end of the day, the market tells us the Jets have about a 60% win probability hosting Washington. And you certainly won’t use the Jets in either Week 17 or Week 18. So, for the absolutely desperate, who have exhausted all other favorites somehow, maybe the Jets fit.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 16, though if you have made it this far, you probably don’t need it.

Compare NFL Moneyline Odds

The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.

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