NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 16 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on December 19, 2022
NFL Week 16 survivor

In the NFL survivor pools still running, more entries fell off the board in Week 15. The Commanders likely contributed heavily in most cases — they crushed the dreams of more than half of the remaining Circa entries. The Packers also remain at risk as a popular play heading to Monday Night Football. For the lucky very few, on to NFL survivor Week 16.

If you are still alive, our congratulations. Your NFL survivor pool should be close to the endgame at this point. Each week, you must try to get inside the heads of your opponents. Which sides do they have available and which ways will they gravitate? One good week can win you the pool now, so be extra diligent.

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Editor’s Note

NFL Survivor Week 16: The Obvious Chalk

Moneylines below from Caesars Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid as of Dec. 20.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Chiefs-480~79%vs. SEA3.6
Bills-430~77%@ CHI9.2
49ers-345~74%vs. WAS19.3
Ravens-345~74%vs. ATL3.6
Titans-335~73%vs. HOU23.3

The Ravens and the Titans are the two teams of most interest here, as most survivor players advancing this far have likely already used the Chiefs, 49ers and Bills.

Baltimore has an obvious quarterback situation to monitor. Lamar Jackson may or may not return this week. If he does, then the Ravens become a fairly obvious play. To say Desmond Ridder didn’t impress in his NFL debut would be putting it kindly since he didn’t even make to 100 yards passing. What little success the Falcons had on offense with Ridder came on the ground, and the Ravens rank sixth in EPA/play allowed there.

If Tyler Huntley draws another start, things get iffier. But, the Ravens will remain decent favorites. And Justin Tucker won’t likely be leaving points on the field again.

The Titans have been in a bit of freefall. Losers of four straight and with the Jaguars nipping on their heels, they desperately need a home win here against the Texans. Houston’s been looking friskier of late after putting scares into the Chiefs and Cowboys.

This is the last game in which Tennessee will be favored, barring a QB injury to the opposition.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Dolphins-225~66%vs. GB1
Buccaneers-220~66%@ ARI9.4
Chargers-195~63%@ IND7.1
Bengals-190~63%@ NE2
Vikings-190~63%vs. NYG3.1

The Buccaneers are a team of note here. Of this group, they’re the only ones projected as clear favorites in each of their three remaining games. That makes it tempting to keep them in your back pocket. Especially so after the stinker they just authored as their latest poor performance in a fall-from-ahead loss to the Bengals.

However, targeting Arizona right now looks tremendous. They may be down to their third-string QB in Trace McSorley. He looks utterly incapable of playing QB at this level, completing less than 50% of his passes with 1 TD and 3 INTs in his brief time taking game snaps. As long as Tom Brady doesn’t give the ball away like Santa handing out candy canes at the local mall again, the Bucs should win this easily.

The Chargers also deserve a look here playing on the road against the Colts. Indianapolis looks likely to shut down Jonathan Taylor, their best weapon in general but especially against the weak Chargers run defense. However, they get the Rams at home the following week, which is about as good as a matchup gets at this stage of the game.

Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 16

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Lions-160~59%@ CAR6.3
Broncos-120~52%@ LAR0.2

The Lions are absolutely rolling and are now reasonable favorites on the road playing the Panthers. Whether they should be is an altogether different question considering the quality of football they have played as of late on the road versus at home.

Aside from playing on the road outdoors, the main issue with clicking the Lions is they get the Bears at home the following week, where they project as bigger favorites. But if you need a down-ballot option, this makes the most sense.

Absolutely desperate players can consider the Broncos. Putting your faith in Brett Rypien on the road is probably insane, but Russell Wilson did clear concussion protocol despite failing to suit up in Week 15. This line figures to move towards Denver if he plays. The Rams are a bottom-five team while Matt Stafford and Aaron Donald remain out, and they’ll be playing on a short week here in tough conditions.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 16.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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