NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 16 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on December 26, 2021
NFL survivor Week 16

Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for NFL fans in recent years. Big brands like DraftKings and Circa are among those offering monster prizes in 2021. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL survivor Week 16 plays.

Another week, another big favorite sinking survivor entries. This time, Arizona did the deed in a loss to the Lions. Then, Tampa Bay blew their chance at the top seed. And more favorites could still lose, since this article is being written on Sunday night. If your pool is somehow still going, congratulate your league-mates on their sharp selections.

As always at this point, you must factor in which sides will be most popular if you haven’t already. It’s time to go for the win. If you can cleanly project where the remaining players are going with their pick, do everything you can to avoid that side even if you think it’s a near lock.

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NFL Survivor Week 16: The Big Favorites You May Not Have Used

Moneylines below from DraftKings Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid. Note that pick percentages are not available early Monday and will be added to this piece at a later time.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
LA Chargers-510~80%@ HOU33.9
Philadelphia Eagles-475~79%vs. NYG17.3
Seattle Seahawks-320~73%vs CHI6.5

There are a bunch of big favorites again in Week 16, but they’re mostly the usual suspects occupying the top of the board. In survivor, this deep, we’re looking for the rounds of ammo we haven’t fired, and these three teams may fit the bill.

The Seahawks are both the least likely winner according to the markets and the team among these with the easiest schedule remaining. Specifically, they get the Lions at home next week. If you haven’t used the Seahawks but you also haven’t used either the Chargers or Eagles, it’s probably best to pivot those directions.

That is, unless you expect your opponents to click those sides. Hey, survivor is tricky. But, you already knew that if you made it this far.

In any case, it’s tough to prognosticate about the Eagles since we don’t yet know what’s going to happen against Washington. Perhaps there’s a major injury or two that changes the equation. Right now, though, it’s hard to figure out how the Giants can keep up with any decent NFL team. This offense is reaching mid-season Texans levels of futility.

If Daniel Jones returns, they may become competent again. But until then, fade away.

As for those Texans, they played downright competent football this past week. That came a week after they looked like a normal bad team against the Seahawks instead of the worst in the league. So, they pose more of a threat to the Chargers than it perhaps looked like a few weeks ago.

Always keep in mind, the Chargers’ style of football does expose them to more variance than the usual team as well.

The Big Favorites You Probably Already Used

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-720~84%@ CAR4
Kansas City Chiefs-475~79%vs. PIT3.8
Dallas Cowboys-435~77%vs. WAS3.9
Green Bay Packers-350~74%vs. CLE6.2

If you’ve saved Kansas City then now is the time to pull the trigger. This is the closest thing to a layup they have left. They finish out the season with tough road games in Cincinnati and Denver.

Pittsburgh’s defense does tend toward the style that has disrupted the Chiefs in recent months. They prefer to drop their safeties and keep everything in front of them. They rely heavily on their pass rush, though, and the Chiefs’ protection has shaped up recently, ranking top 10 according to both Football Outsiders and PFF.

In Arrowhead, it would be a surprise if the Steelers offense got anything done against the reorganized Chiefs D, as long as Chris Jones and Co. return. Keep an eye on that situation before clicking the Chiefs.

The Cowboys find themselves in a very similar scenario. They’re projected short favorites in their final two games. But they should win pretty easily this week against a Washington team on short rest that they were plastering before a near-collapse in Week 14.

If deciding between these two, simply go off which way you expect your rivals to zig or zag, as it were.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option for NFL Survivor Week 16

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Atlanta Falcons-210~65%vs. DET8.1

The Falcons have been arguably the most predictable NFL team of the 2021 season. It’s actually fascinating how consistent they’ve been. The simple pattern: they beat the very bad teams they play and lose to everyone else.

That continued in Week 15 as the 49ers beat them pretty easily.

As for Week 16, they go back to playing the dregs, this time Detroit. If Atlanta’s history is any guide, this will be a one-score victory. It would take something crazy for you to think about selecting this team again. So, getting them as a favorite will do just fine if you find yourself in a jam.

Good luck in NFL survivor Week 16.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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