NFL Survivor Week 15 Picks, Win Probability Tool: Ravens A Free Space?

With NFL survivor pools reaching the endgame, TheLines.com’s Pro Football Survivor contest has seven entries left after starting with nearly 2,000 in the $10,000 pool. Let’s explore some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 15 picks. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 15 odds.

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NFL Survivor Week 14 Recap

The Eagles were predictably chalky in many survivor leagues and made some folks sweat. Carolina’s potential game-winning drive stopped in Eagles territory after going off as underdogs of around +600. Most of the other favorites cruised, although the Dolphins were a notable exception, as they nearly lost to the Jets before taking command in overtime.

That essentially led to a rollover week. Almost everyone in the big Circa pool survived, and the full seven entries remaining in our contest survived.

NFL Survivor Week 15: Top Projected Win Percentages

Here are some reminders when it comes to NFL survivor picks:

• You must plan for the long term.
• You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
• Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
• Avoiding the week’s top pick allows you to see the most significant chunk of your rivals knocked out.

Team	ML	Implied Win%	Opp.	Popularity
Ravens	-1000	~89.2%	@ NYG	Subscribe
Commanders	-355	~75.7%	@ NO	Subscribe
Vikings	-300	~73%	vs. CHI	Subscribe
Cardinals	-258	~71.3%	vs. NE	Subscribe
Chiefs	-250	~70.8%	@ CLE	Subscribe

NFL Survivor Week 15 Picks: The Obvious Chalk

Last week, we had one clear top favorite. That’s again this week, and it’s another East Coast bird.

Many will choose the Ravens instead of the Eagles as an easy survivor selection. For the next two weeks, Baltimore plays AFC playoff contenders. Because of their combination of playing a demanding schedule and losing several times as favorites, the Ravens are available to nearly 50% of Circa entries.

So, if you’re lucky enough to still be playing, expect to see a lot of Ravens selections.

It’s not hard to see why from a football standpoint. They’re facing the charred remains of the Giants, who just struggled to reach double digits in points at home against the Saints. Drew Lock looks like the worst starting QB in football by a large margin.

If you have the Ravens available, it should be a sweat-free week.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

Most survivor players have used Washington already. Those who haven’t just caught a break, because Washington’s Week 15 assignment got easier thanks to Derek Carr’s injury. Carr may not be a world-beater, but he’s a significant step up from Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler. This spot looks far better than the rest of those remaining on the Commanders’ schedule.

This is the last decent spot for the Vikings. PoolGenius doesn’t have them doing any better than a flip in the final three games, understandably so since the weakest of the opposition is Seattle, and that one’s on the road. Hosting a division rival in the Bears won’t be a picnic, but the Vikings should be ready for this one after they nearly blew it against Chicago on the road.

The Cardinals get to host the Patriots. New England has sometimes been feisty and comes off the bye, so it’s a good spot for them. And since Arizona’s Week 16 game in Carolina looks much more challenging than it did a month ago, survivor players will look hard at this one. Expect a high level of popularity here.

One intriguing team here is Denver. They host the Colts (also off the bye), and their closing schedule is tough on paper.

However, Buffalo’s loss gave the Chiefs some much-needed breathing room atop the AFC. If they enter Week 18’s road game with the top seed locked up, that may turn into essentially a free win for the Broncos.

Then again, the Broncos could also be locked into a playoff spot.

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One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 15 Picks

The Jets head on the road to play the Jaguars in a battle of teams whose front offices are likely rooting for losses. Both showed real fight in Week 14, but it’s anyone’s guess whether that continues.

Many survivor players already used New York back when they were more in the thick of the playoff race. But for those who didn’t, they’re likely in play for the final time against the Mac Jones-led Jaguars.

Should you trust the Jets to win a pro football game on the road in 2024 after their season has meaningfully ended? Probably not, but they’re an option.

My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 15 Picks

Aside from the Ravens, the Commanders and Vikings look like fine options. The Cardinals make me a little uneasy, as the quality of their defense against a quarterback who looks like he can play makes them ripe for a possible upset.

One option I haven’t mentioned that I like is the Falcons. They play the Raiders on the road, and Las Vegas may be down to third-string QB Desmond Ridder, depending on how Aidan O’Connell’s injury shakes out.

The main thing I like is that I don’t see many people playing them. Atlanta has home games remaining against the Giants and Panthers. Anyone with the Falcons available will likely save them for these spots.

Good luck with your NFL survivor Week 15 picks.

Compare NFL Moneyline Odds

The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.

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