NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 15 Win Probabilities Tool

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
NFL Week 16 survivor

NFL Survivor picks have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. DraftKings is one of the sports betting sites that offers pools throughout the season, not just before Week 1. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best Survivor options and teams most likely to win. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 15 plays, which feature some huge favorites that likely aren’t available for use. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 15 odds.

In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.

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NFL Survivor Week 14 Recap

The Steelers fell to a moribund team at home for the second straight week to eliminate a big swath of entries. Houston also torpedoed their fair share with the road no-show in New York, and plenty more Survivor players still have a Monday night sweat on their hands with the Packers.

NFL Survivor Week 15 has plenty of big favorites, but they likely aren’t available in most players’ bags. Instead, it will again come down to dodging the potential landmines in the middle of the card. Teams like the Rams and Saints will carry a lot of ownership as medium favorites with nice matchups.

Here are some NFL Survivor reminders:

  • You must plan for the long term.
  • You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
  • Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
  • Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

NFL Survivor Week 15: Projected Win Percentages

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
49ers-900~86%@ ARISubscribe
Dolphins-650~83%vs. NYJSubscribe
Chiefs-450~78%@ NESubscribe
Rams-300~72%vs. WASSubscribe
Saints-275~70%vs. NYGSubscribe

The Obvious Chalk

The top favorites include the Dolphins and 49ers, per usual, but does anyone still in Survivor even have these teams left? If so, you won’t need to analyze much this week, especially with Miami having one of the nastier closing stretches in the NFL. San Francisco still gets to play Washington (road) and the L.A. Rams (home), and with a close race for the No. 1 seed brewing, they’ll likely be pushing to win all of those games.

The Chiefs, too, will be favored in all of their remaining contests.

So, even if you still have one of the big favorites available, it might be a good time to consider playing further down the board. You would risk elimination now, but give yourself the chance of having one of the top teams without sharing them down the stretch.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

The Rams and Saints are probably the two top teams in this section of possible NFL Survivor picks.

L.A. has an offense clicking on all cylinders right now. The defense let them down in the narrow Week 14 loss to Baltimore. Washington does come in off the bye but hasn’t had a decent result in weeks and should be little threat to the Rams.

New Orleans, meanwhile, gets the Giants at home. However, they’re difficult to trust until we see a professional level of QB play. Yes, they’re rightful favorites here, but Derek Carr has been unable to lead touchdown drives as he insists on playing hurt. That leaves them vulnerable to an upset against even the weakest of opposition.

When looking at these two options, one should naturally consider schedules. And the Rams have by far the better of it over the final weeks, projecting as favorites the following two weeks. However, Week 17 (at New York Giants) features many big favorites. So, unless you’ve used them all up and have to play L.A., there’s no reason to shy away from the Rams if you like them more than the Saints this week.

Cincinnati may also be a sneaky option here. The market has finally shown Jake Browning some respect as he continues to put up great numbers. And Minnesota’s offense hit its low point of the season, struggling to a 3-0 win in Week 14 over the somehow even worse Raiders.

PoolGenius doesn’t project Cincinnati as a favorite for the remainder of the year. If you have them in the bag, they may offer a chance to differentiate from the remaining entries.

Rams Upcoming Schedule

Detroit Lions 12 – 5 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
Arizona Cardinals 4 – 13 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
San Francisco 49ers 12 – 5 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 15

Atlanta plays at Carolina, facing off with the worst offense in the NFL and an offense they shut down in the season’s opening week. Trusting your Survivor entry to Desmond Ridder on the road is never comfortable. But he had another productive game in Week 14. And the Panthers have zero punch on offense.

In a week when the top of the board is probably unavailable, digging a bit deeper and landing on Atlanta makes sense.

Las Vegas represents an even crazier option. Hey, they get to face Easton Stick at home and with a short week to prepare. That’s pretty much the start and finish of the elevator pitch. Needless to say, PoolGenius doesn’t have the Raiders favored for the rest of the season, with nothing but playoff games on tap.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 15, though if you have made it this far, you probably don’t need it.

Compare NFL Moneyline Odds

The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.

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