NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 15 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on December 12, 2022
NFL survivor week 15

After weeks of calm, some chaos finally hit the board again. While the big favorites all won, folks on the Chiefs and Cowboys had minor and major sweats, respectively. Most remaining survivor entries have to dig deeper than that, though, and the Seahawks, Titans and Raiders eliminated many entries. More than half of the remaining Circa field busted this week. On to NFL survivor Week 15.

If you are still alive, our congratulations. Your NFL survivor pool should be close to the endgame at this point. Each week, you must try to get inside the heads of your opponents. Which sides do they have available and which ways will they gravitate? One good week can win you the pool now, so be extra diligent.

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Editor’s Note

NFL Survivor Week 15: The Obvious Chalk

Moneylines below from Caesars Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid as of Dec. 13.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Chiefs-900~86%@ HOU20.9
Eagles-440~78%@ CHI9.2
Bills-355~75%vs. MIA2.3
Packers-350~75%vs. LAR8.2

The usual suspects at the top, for the most part. Anything can happen in a given game — ask the Cowboys if the Texans are a free win — but the Chiefs and Eagles should probably roll.

The Bills have a more difficult assignment with the Dolphins. Yes, the Dolphins have looked poor in the past couple of weeks, getting soundly outplayed by the 49ers and then the Chargers. Keep an eye on the status of Tyreek Hill, though. He sustained an injury and his absence would materially affect the Dolphins’ chances here.

Green Bay looks like the play most widely available of these, though. Again, the Rams showed they aren’t a free win on Thursday Night Football. And Baker Mayfield shouldn’t be intimidated by playing in Lambeau after he very nearly walked in and snatched a win as a big underdog last year.

But, Mayfield looked clearly lost on several plays. It was obvious that despite doing his best, he isn’t up to speed on the playbook yet. The Packers are coming off a bye, at home, and may need to run the table for their season. They should win this one.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Cowboys-235~67%@ JAC2.2
Commanders-220~66%vs. NYG5.3
Vikings-210~65%vs. IND17.8
Saints-205~64%vs. ATL8.6

A couple of weeks ago, the Washington Commanders and New York Giants played to a 20-20 tie. The schedule makers did the Commanders a solid and gave them a Giants-bye-Giants three-week stretch, which means they’ve been prepping for this game for essentially three weeks.

Meanwhile, the Giants hit the road and come in weary after a physical beatdown at the hands of the Eagles. It’s not a great situation for them.

The Commanders still have the 49ers and Cowboys remaining on the schedule, so this looks like by far their easiest remaining game.

Another team of interest and likely widely unplayed in survivor is the Saints. Like Washington, they may not be favored the rest of the season. Another likely reason for optimism: it sounds like they’ll face rookie QB Desmond Ridder in his starting debut for the Falcons. A rookie on the road against a Saints defense that seems to be finding its way. They haven’t allowed more than 20 points since Week 9.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 15

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Browns-145~57%vs. BAL0.7

This is another injury situation to keep an eye on, only things are even more dire and also more layered. The Browns may get the good fortune of facing third-string QB Anthony Brown here if Tyler Huntley can’t clear concussion protocol and Lamar Jackson remains on ice. It didn’t sound like the former MVP was particularly close to playing in Week 14 for the Ravens.

As a rookie undrafted free agent, expectations for Brown should be about as low as possible.

That being said, we just watched Brock Purdy roll over the Buccaneers so you never know.

Plus, the Browns may be bigger favorites next week hosting the Saints.

Deshaun Watson looked a little more comfortable and made a few more plays in Week 14, but backing the Browns doesn’t excite. Still, if you’re in a pinch this is an option. Just keep an eye on the Ravens’ QB situation.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 15.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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