NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 15 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on December 19, 2021
NFL survivor week 15

Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for NFL fans in recent years. Big brands like DraftKings and Circa are among those offering monster prizes in 2021. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL survivor Week 15 plays.

Since basically every favorite rolled in Week 14, pretty much everyone should have advanced. So, cross off a few teams used and onto the next.

As always at this point, you must factor in which sides will be most popular if you haven’t already. It’s time to go for the win. If you can cleanly project where the remaining players are going with their pick, do everything you can to avoid that side even if you think it’s a near lock.

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NFL Survivor Week 15: The Big Favorites That Usually Aren’t

Moneylines below from DraftKings Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid. Note that pick percentages are not available early Monday and will be added to this piece at a later time.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
49ers-450~78%vs. ATL15.7
Dolphins-410~77%vs. NYJ22.8

Week 15 features two teams that fit the bill for what survivor players seek every week. Both the 49ers and the Dolphins are large favorites who have rarely been so, making them very attractive survivor options. Most likely, you still have them in your pool of remaining teams.

The market makes the 49ers slightly stronger favorites. However, two things make them a bit less attractive than the Dolphins. For one, Circa players might need the Niners next week, when they must make two picks. For another, the Niners have what looks like a freebie in Week 17, at home against Houston.

San Francisco does match up pretty well here, though. Jimmy Garoppolo has always been perfectly willing to throw it into linebackers’ chests when he’s under pressure, but the Falcons have the worst pass rush in the league. And the Falcons lack the receiving options to take advantage of the Niners’ ravaged cornerback room.

As for the Dolphins, they play the Jets at home. Matchups don’t get any better than that, and the Fins come off their bye. Speaking of QBs who struggle under pressure, the Dolphins bring more of that than almost anyone, and Zach Wilson has had difficulty completing passes on the best of days.

With no future value, a dream matchup and plenty of other big favorites on the board, the Dolphins should be at or near the top of your lists this week.

Four More Pretty Big Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Cardinals-800~85%@ DET22.2
Buccaneers-525~80%vs. NO3.2
Bills-525~79%vs. CAR6.9
Cowboys-475~79%@ NYG8.6

Most likely, you can’t pick any of these teams since you already used them to get this far in survivor. If you have any left, all obviously make for attractive choices.

Dallas and Arizona have the toughest schedules remaining of this group. So, if you’re in a survivor contest where it looks like you make have to get to the end of the season, they’re the teams to target here.

Unfortunately, a large injury has popped up for the Cowboys. LT Tyron Smith has already been ruled out for Week 15, and the team has had some real stinkers on offense in his absence the past few years.

Still, the Giants are as bad as anyone right now. They have no reason to rush Daniel Jones back from injury, and their defense got completely steamrolled by a similar high-volume passing offense last week. Justin Herbert and the Chargers had 8.2 YPA through the air.

There wouldn’t be many results more shocking in 2021 than the Cardinals dropping one to the Lions. Detroit returned to its putrid ways in Week 14. An already awful team has been furthered weakened by injuries to TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift, their only two players on offense that even remotely worry the opposition.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option for NFL Survivor Week 15

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Jaguars-180~62%vs. HOU2.8

If you want to go way off the board, it doesn’t get any more contrarian than selecting the Jacksonville Jaguars in survivor. The Jaguars haven’t been favored since Week 1 when they…lost to these same Texans, 37-21.

Even though the Jags are the ones who just got shut out, it’s the Houston offense that bears mentioning here. The Texans have lapped the field in offensive ineptitude at this point. It’s almost difficult to find an offensive metric where they don’t rank dead last.

Davis Mills did provide the smallest of boosts as the team managed 5 YPP, an improvement over recent Tyrod Taylor starts. But overall, he’s probably been the worst decent-volume QB in the league this year.

If you can manage you trust the Jaguars and their broken culture, you’re a brave soul, but this is the spot to think about it if your league structure merits the consideration.

Good luck in NFL survivor Week 15.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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