NFL Survivor Week 14 Picks, Win Probability Tool: Fly Eagles Fly?

With NFL survivor pools reaching the endgame, TheLines.com’s Pro Football Survivor contest has seven entries after starting with nearly 2,000 in the $10,000 pool. Five of the seven reached Week 14, while the last two have the Broncos pending. Let’s explore some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 14 picks. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 14 odds.

In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a three-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click “PLAY NOW” in the banner below to get started.

NFL Survivor Week 13 Recap

Only a smattering of survivor entries busted out in most leagues, including the big Circa contest, despite the two-pick week that included the pre-Sunday games. Still, it wasn’t without a sweat, as the Bucs’ miracle escape against the Panthers saw a lot of entries through. The Chiefs also had yet another scare, barely beating the Raiders as massive home favorites. Detroit also held off a late charge thanks in part to clock mismanagement that cost Chicago coach Matt Eberflus his job.

And many still need Denver to come through on Monday Night Football.

NFL Survivor Week 14: Top Projected Win Percentages

Here are some reminders when it comes to NFL survivor picks:

• You must plan for the long term.
• You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
• Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
• Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

Team	ML	Implied Win%	Opp.	Popularity
Eagles	-650	~83.9%	vs. CAR	Subscribe
Buccaneers	-298	~73.5%	vs. LV	Subscribe
Dolphins	-278	~71.4%	vs. NYJ	Subscribe
Steelers	-275	~71.1%	vs. CLE	Subscribe
Bengals	-245	~68.8%	@ DAL	Subscribe

NFL Survivor Week 14 Picks: The Obvious Chalk

One team sits above the rest when it comes to Week 14 win probability. The Eagles get to host the Panthers, though it’s worth noting that Carolina no longer represents the walkover it once did. Carolina’s last four games have all been wins or closes losses, and the competition included the likes of Kansas City and Tampa Bay.

Philly could also get caught looking ahead, with the closing schedule featuring the Steelers and then three divisional matchups.

Obviously, they should win this. But home games against Dallas and New York Giants might actually be easier tasks at this point. And only about a quarter of the Circa entries even have the Eagles available. Most survivor pools are likely in similar situations.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

That, in turn, means most survivor players are diving into the nitty gritty to find a winner.

Pittsburgh stands out among the medium favorites. They’ll surely have this home game against the Browns circled after blowing it a few weeks ago on the road. They also have a fiendishly difficult finishing kick, with PoolGenius favoring them only at home against Cincinnati. That will be no picnic unless the Bengals pack it in for the year, which doesn’t seem likely against a division rival.

Miami also doesn’t have any appealing spots left unless the 49ers call it a season early and put Brock Purdy on ice. They get a Jets team at home that looks possibly ready to collapse.

Tampa Bay is in a pretty good spot hosting the Raiders, but unlike these other teams, they still have Carolina at home.

The aggressive option here is New Orleans. The Saints should obviously be widely available, and they play on the road against the Giants. New York has looked pretty non-functional in back-to-back weeks with two different quarterbacks, which may indicate the underlying problems are so bad it doesn’t matter which replacement-level QB is in there.

New Orleans’ roster took a big hit with Taysom Hill going down, though.

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One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 14 Picks

If one can stomach clicking on the Tennessee Titans, they’re actually favored at home this week against a Jaguars team that has zero reason to risk its franchise QB’s health following a scary hit. Presumably, Mac Jones will draw the start. He has been dreadful aside from a somewhat spirited late rally this past week to backdoor a cover against Houston.

Will Levis has been playing better, and the Titans have a respectable defense.

Needless to say, there won’t be another spot to consider Tennessee. I would be surprised if we don’t see at least a handful of brave Circa entrants pinch their noses and go for it here.

My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 14 Picks

I think Pittsburgh should be heavily considered despite facing a divisional foe that has already upended them once. That game had some serious weather shenanigans that impacted Russell Wilson’s ability to throw downfield. Despite profiting with Browns +3.5 there, I’m skeptical Jameis Winston can repeat the feat on the road in presumably better conditions.

They would be my pick if you don’t have the Eagles available.

Good luck with your NFL survivor Week 14 picks.

Compare NFL Moneyline Odds

The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.

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