NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 14 Win Probabilities Tool
NFL Survivor picks have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. DraftKings is one of the sports betting sites that offers pools as well throughout the season, not just before Week 1. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options and teams most likely to win. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 14 plays, which again feature a bevy of mid-card options, including the Steelers at home against the woebegone Patriots. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 14 odds.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
NFL Survivor Week 13 Recap
The Steelers knocked out a huge portion of survivor picks, including a full 30% of the big Circa contest. Additionally, tons of survivor players will be sweating Monday Night Football in hopes of getting Jacksonville through, so we’ll see how that shakes out.
NFL Week 14 Survivor once again features several mid-sized favorites that will likely be available to large portions of most survivor pools. It’s the third week in a row that’s the case, which should make for some good sweats. None of these teams is a powerhouse, meaning each could slip up at any time.
Here are some NFL Survivor reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
NFL Survivor Week 14: Projected Win Percentages
The Obvious Chalk
Miami once again sits atop the board. They rolled in Week 13 and should roll again in Week 14. They’ve caught an early break as well, with star Titans DL Jeffery Simmons declared out for a few weeks after sustaining an injury. He’s probably the best player on the team, and it doesn’t seem likely a Will Levis-helmed offense can keep up with this Miami bunch.
But how many survivor entries even have Miami available, or San Francisco for that matter? Also, Miami hosts the Jets in Week 15 so if you somehow still have Miami, they need to be on the card either this week or next.
Those waiting to click 49ers might have gained some mild concern for this spot after seeing Geno Smith shred the vaunted Cowboys defense. However, the 49ers have absolutely owned Seattle the past couple of seasons, and they’re at home with motivation here chasing the NFC No. 1 seed. It would probably qualify as stunning if they lost.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
Baltimore is in a similar spot to Miami. As an elite (by 2023 standards) team, they need to be used, but it’s down to this week or hosting Pittsburgh in the finale. A Rams team with upward mobility because of its offense does not represent a very appealing spot. So, hopefully (and most likely) people have used the Ravens.
Survivor players should have options if they have. Houston, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans. All are respectable favorites. All have relatively comfortable matchups against bottom-of-the-barrel offenses that don’t threaten.
New England and New York Jets don’t have functional passing offenses. As of this writing, the Jets have not even settled on a starting quarterback yet. Carolina gets 4 YPP at most every week. And the Giants will surely lead the NFL in sacks taken as long as Tommy DeVito is the QB. They won’t be able to overcome that against decent teams.
Of these teams, New Orleans probably has the most appealing future spot, hosting the Giants next week. Pittsburgh still gets Cincinnati at home in Week 16 and will likely be a sizable favorite. Houston probably has the most difficult schedule, so they might be the team that offers the most “use them or lose them” urgency.
Texans Upcoming Schedule
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One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 14
Since there are plenty of good mid-tier options, you shouldn’t need to dig deep this week. If you somehow do, then Minnesota may offer some potential.
The Vikings play at Las Vegas. Not only will that feature a bad opponent, but it should also come with a healthy dose of Vikings fans migrating to the desert for a weekend away from the snow.
And down the stretch, PoolGenius doesn’t project the Vikings as favorites in any remaining game, although it will be close when they play at Cincinnati and host Green Bay.
Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 14.
Compare NFL MoneylIne Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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