NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 14 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on December 5, 2022
NFL survivor week 14

All of the big favorites won yet again for another “kick the can down” week in NFL survivor. There were a couple of huge sweats as the Ravens and Seahawks both very nearly lost as huge favorites. But, for almost everyone, on to NFL survivor Week 14.

If you are still alive, our congratulations. Your NFL survivor pool should be close to the endgame at this point. Each week, you must try to get inside the heads of your opponents. Which sides do they have available and which ways will they gravitate? One good week can win you the pool now, so be extra diligent.

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Editor’s Note

NFL Survivor Week 14: The Obvious Chalk

Moneylines below from Caesars Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid as of Dec. 6.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Cowboys-1700~91%vs. HOU15.5
Bills-455~78%vs. NYJ11.1
Chiefs-430~78%vs. DEN5.1

We haven’t seen a favorite as big as the Cowboys this entire season. But such is the state of these two teams.

The Texans have hit a catastrophic low under new QB Kyle Allen, who likely needs to be benched if this team is going to have any hope of winning a game down the stretch. Davis Mills has his shortfalls for sure, but he’s been far better than Allen. He’d move the needle somewhat in terms of the Texans having a tiny chance, but the Cowboys have hit their stride on offense finally. They routed the Colts in the second half and the offense has scored at least 24 in every game since Dak Prescott returned.

Dallas has a reasonably challenging closing schedule with three road games in the final four. They’ll be favored so it isn’t now or never, but this is a clear layup compared to the remaining games, any of which could result in a loss.

The Bills and Chiefs both face divisional foes as big home favorites, but the Bills look to be in slightly more danger simply due to the opponent actually having motivation with a live season. Either would be a fine play if you somehow have them left.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Eagles-305~72%@ NYG1.7
Raiders-430~68%@ LAR6.5
Seahawks-220~66%vs. CAR21.3
Bengals-220~66%vs. CLE8.8

This is where things get a bit more fun and definitely interesting.

The Eagles have a very easy schedule down the stretch. But, it’s reasonably likely they don’t have anything to play for in Week 18 against the Giants. If you’re in a large pool that will go all the way through the season, then it might make sense to use them now if you somehow haven’t already.

The remaining three teams in this tier all have pretty bearish schedules down the stretch. And all may very well remain in your holster. So, how do they compare?

The Bengals have the best team of these, but they have a nightmare schedule down the stretch. It’s either pick them here or at the Patriots in Week 16. They also have the most interesting opponent. The Browns looked atrocious in Week 13. How quickly if at all will Deshaun Watson regain his feel for playing QB at the NFL level?

More likely available are the Raiders and Seahawks.

The Raiders may be the popular play of the week. They get to face the Rams, albeit on the road. While the Rams put up an admirable fight in Week 13, they still allowed 8.1 YPA to the Seahawks dropbacks. The Raiders bring a similar sort of offense to the table. Assuming Matt Stafford doesn’t return, this looks like a fine spot for the Raiders.

Seattle’s only other appetizing spot looks to be the Rams in Week 18, so long as they do indeed shut Stafford and Cooper Kupp down. But since we can’t know for sure if that happens, and your pool may end before that, using the Seahawks here at home against the Panthers makes more sense.

Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 14

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Steelers-135~55%vs. BAL0.8
Patriots-125~52%@ ARI0.6

If you need to dig deep, here are a couple of scary options that have basically no future value whatsoever. Both the Patriots and the Steelers have minuses by their names, and this could very well be the last time you see that this season.

In the case of Pittsburgh, they caught a potential break and may face Tyler Huntley after Lamar Jackson went down injured. However, keep in mind that Huntley has not embarrassed himself thus far as a pro. The team has gone 2-4 during his significant action, but not a single game as decided by more than three points. He also faced an extremely tough slate of opposing defenses in that time.

New England gets the Cardinals on the road and off a bye. But, they look likely to be underdogs in every remaining game afterwards.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 14.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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