NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 14 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on December 12, 2021
NFL survivor week 14

Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for NFL fans in recent years. Big brands like DraftKings and Circa are among those offering monster prizes in 2021. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL survivor Week 14 plays.

With the Ravens and Vikings surely killing a few more entries, every pool that hasn’t ended should be down to the absolute end game. Only a few chess pieces remain on the board at this point.

You must factor in which sides will be most popular if you haven’t already. It’s time to go for the win. If you can cleanly project where the remaining players are going with their pick, do everything you can to avoid that side even if you think it’s a near lock.

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NFL Survivor Week 14: The Two Clearest Picks

Moneylines below from DraftKings Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid. Note that pick percentages are not available early Monday and will be added to this piece at a later time.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Packers-630~83%vs. CHITBD
Chargers-490~79%vs. NYGTBD

Two picks appear to stand above the rest this week, for two different reasons.

At the top of the table probability-wise, the Packers should absolutely roll over the Bears very easily.

This is a pretty perfect scenario for Green Bay, which has been succeeding in spite of a rash of injuries. Not only do they potentially get any combination of star players — Jaire Alexander, David Bakhtiari and Za’Darius Smith — back, but they come off the bye. Banged up players like Aaron Rodgers could look better.

If you have Green Bay left and your main rivals mostly do not, you have a dream scenario and a no-brainer pick.

But, many players have likely already used Green Bay. If that’s you, then the Chargers make for an excellent pivot. They face a Giants offense that has looked miserable for months. The Giants last played well on offense back in Week 4 against the Saints. Recent wins have all been driven by defense and/or luck. Both the Raiders and Eagles out gained them but sank themselves with turnovers and poor high-leverage performance.

The only hesitation here comes from the Chargers’ penchant for variance and, by proxy, losing games as favorites. Of their five losses, four came as favorites. They’re a difficult team to trust but this is their first time favored by more than a touchdown. They should dominate New York.

Four More Pretty Big Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Chiefs-435~77%vs. LVTBD
Titans-435~77%vs. JACTBD
Broncos-365~75%vs. DETTBD
Seahawks-335~73%@ HOUTBD

Of these four decent-sized favorites, two teams clearly stand out. Most survivor players have probably already used the Chiefs and Titans anyway, so we will take a look at the Broncos and Seahawks.

Many players likely spent the Broncos during their early Jags-then-Jets back-to-back. If not, you surely haven’t given them a second thought during a long string of games as mostly underdogs. It’s finally time to consider them again, though, with the Lions on tap.

The Broncos won’t be decent favorites again the rest of the year barring a QB injury. The Lions may have gotten their long-awaited win, but the Vikings outgained them pretty easily, 6 YPP to 5.2. This is still an awful team going on the road against a decent team in a really tough environment. And the Lions should play without D’Andre Swift again.

A combination of poor play and an injury to Russell Wilson rendered the Seahawks untouchable for most of the year. They put themselves back on the map with their victory over the 49ers and now get one of the easiest assignments in football in the Texans, albeit on the road.

The Texans offense has reached a special level of awful. They have only reached 20 competitive points once in the past couple of months it took multiple short fields thanks to Titans turnovers to get there.

As long as Russ can manage 17 points here, the Seahawks should win.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option for NFL Survivor Week 14

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Buccaneers-160~59%vs. BUFTBD

There are enough big favorites, specifically big favorites who haven’t been big favorites often if at all, that this week has perhaps less reason than any to go far down the board. An exception would come from double-edged leagues where you can only pick against a team once.

Most likely, these tougher leagues have ended For those that haven’t, this week features a very rare opportunity to click against the Buffalo Bills.

Is it a great spot to click Tampa Bay coming off an easy win while stock has plummeted on the Bills after a loss you can heavily blame on bad weather? Probably not. They’ll find much better passing conditions in sunny Florida. They should play quite a bit better.

But, again, this just comes down to availability. You’ve presumably faded all the softest cupcakes by now, so you have to pick against some teams with a pulse. Unless, Josh Allen gets hurt, this is the only chance to fade the Bills with any level of confidence.

Good luck in NFL survivor Week 14.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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