NFL Survivor Week 13 Picks, Win Probability Tool: Roll With The Holiday Favorites?
With NFL survivor pools reaching the endgame, TheLines.com’s Pro Football Survivor contest has seven entries after starting with nearly 2,000 in the $10,000 pool. Let’s explore some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 13 picks. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 13 odds.
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NFL Survivor Week 12 Recap
The axe fell heavily again in Week 12. Washington lost as a double-digit home favorite, knocking out a huge chunk of survivor entries, especially in the big Circa contest (33%). Losses by the Steelers and Texans also proved costly, and many survivor players had to sweat in the Chiefs, who won on a last-minute drive.
More than 40% of the Circa field busted, as did two of the nine remaining entries in TheLines’ pool.
NFL Survivor Week 13: Top Projected Win Percentages
Here are some reminders when it comes to NFL survivor picks:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Popularity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -750 | ~85.2% | vs. LV | Subscribe |
| Lions | -560 | ~82.4% | vs. CHI | Subscribe |
| Bills | -300 | ~73% | vs. SF | Subscribe |
| Buccaneers | -250 | ~69.6% | @ CAR | Subscribe |
| Commanders | -250 | ~69.6% | vs. TEN | Subscribe |
NFL Survivor Week 13 Picks: The Obvious Chalk
The Chiefs and the Lions have two losses, so it was probably tough to make it to this point without using them. This is a fantastic spot for folks who somehow did not, as both are massive home favorites.
The teams are doubly important for Circa players since they’re available for the Thanksgiving slate.
The Chiefs host the Raiders in a game that looks eerily similar to last year’s Christmas debacle: massive home favorites against Aidan O’Connell in a holiday game. We know how that one ended. But that probably only ensures the Chiefs are well-guarded against a letdown here.
The Chiefs are more modest favorites in their remaining games, with Cleveland (Week 15) slightly the best of the bunch according to PoolGenius’ projections.
Detroit is in a similar boat, with Chicago (Week 16) as their next-best option.
Anyone with either of these monster favorites left has a pretty easy play.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
The Bills have popped onto the radar after the Packers demolished the tattered remains of the 49ers sans Brock Purdy. His availability this week remains up in the air. The 49ers haven’t been the most forthright with injuries in the past, so it’s difficult to predict his chances of playing.
If he does miss the game, the Bills rate as a monster favorite. Keep an eye on Trent Williams’ availability as well. The offense dropped off meaningfully without him last year.
Buffalo does still get the Patriots at home, however.
The Bucs are coming off a layup game (that wasn’t used as much as it should have been in Survivor) and head to Carolina. They will be popular, but a road divisional game against a team on the uptick could spell trouble. They still have the Panthers and Raiders at home as well.
Denver and Washington are both solid home favorites. Neither has much future value, as they might not be meaningful favorites the rest of the way. The Commanders get the Titans coming off a high with a divisional upset win. And the Broncos host the Browns, albeit after extra rest.
Future value makes both solid considerations this week, even if losses would stun nobody in these spots.
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Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 13 Picks
Holiday slate players should look hard at the Dallas Cowboys. They landed in a fascinating spot this week. Many Circa players were likely saving them for this game, only to seemingly have the rug pulled out with the Dak Prescott injury.
Except, the Cowboys are suddenly back on the survivor’s radar. The Giants switched QBs, and Tommy DeVito predictably fell flat on his face against the Bucs. Dallas’ defense is less intimidating, but it’s still a road game against a more talented team.
If ownership on the slate flocks to K.C. and Detroit, the Cowboys may be an acceptable contrarian option.
The Colts could also be a consideration. They head to New England to face a Patriots team that can’t stop anyone. Indy still has late-season games against Tennessee (home, Week 16) and the Giants (road, Week 17). PoolGenius likes those spots slightly more.
My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 13 Picks
It’s hard not to be thrilled to play the Chiefs and Lions, but that won’t be an option for many players.
I could see the Bucs being popular, but it’s not a game I’d want any part of. The Panthers look feisty and keep significantly outperforming their market number.
I’m interested in Denver at home against Cleveland. The Broncos look like they will mostly roll bad teams but struggle when they step up in class. I can certainly understand burning Buffalo as well if Purdy is out. However, in survivor pools that will see the end of the season, saving them for home against the Patriots makes sense.
Good luck with your NFL survivor Week 13 picks.
Compare NFL Moneyline Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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