NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 13 Win Probabilities Tool
NFL Survivor picks have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. DraftKings is one of the sports betting sites that offers pools as well throughout the season, not just before Week 1. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options and teams most likely to win. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 13 plays, which feature a number of decent plays, including the Buccaneers in the rare role of solid favorites. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 13 odds.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
NFL Survivor Week 12 Recap
Week 12 saw more blood in the survivor streets, as the Patriots and Lions lopped off a ton of entries in many pools. In the big Circa pool, where contestants must select from the holiday slate (including the Black Friday game this year), the Lions’ loss to Green Bay eliminated more than half of the entries.
NFL Week 13 Survivor is the second straight where the middle of the board features some potentially appealing options. Several teams that are not frequently favored find themselves in that position, facing off against opponents with myriad issues that have them sliding late in the season.
Here are some NFL Survivor reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
NFL Survivor Week 13: Projected Win Percentages
The Obvious Chalk
Miami is the biggest favorite of the week but probably not available in most survivor players’ bags at this point of the season. In any case, they’ve stomped bad teams for the most part, although Washington is more frisky than your normal bad team due to their passing offense. Tua Tagovailoa will likely need a better performance than his uneven play over the past few games for this to be a comfortable win.
Of the big favorites, Jacksonville is probably the one most widely available. Therefore, expect the Jags to carry a large amount of ownership in most pools. Given where Cincinnati finds itself without Joe Burrow — soundly outplayed despite playing at home against a Pittsburgh team that hasn’t done that basically all year — it’s easy to buy into the Jags.
They should win this game without much sweat, but keep an eye on availability here. A pivot may make sense in certain pools.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
Things get interesting here in NFL Survivor Week 13. At least four teams here hold some level of appeal.
Tampa Bay looks like a delightful option. They host a Carolina team that’s bad in the best of times and now adds complete coaching disarray to the profile after a midseason firing of Frank Reich. If anyone in this receiving group could catch the ball, the Bucs’ results in the past few weeks would probably look a bit better.
PoolGenius doesn’t project the Bucs as a favorite again until Week 18 at Carolina, and nearly everyone probably has them available unless they gambled big in Week 2 against Chicago.
The Rams, on the other hand, have the toughest opponent in Cleveland and probably the lowest availability. Many used them in Week 6, hosting the Cardinals. Therefore, they represent the best chance for low ownership out of all the decent-to-high favorites. However, keep an eye on the injury report here for Cleveland. Myles Garrett, Amari Cooper and other key pieces limped away from the loss to Denver.
The other L.A. team crosses the country to play a dreadful New England team that lost to Tommy DeVito and gained just 4.1 YPA passing on the Giants defense. Unless you’re planning to use the Chargers next week hosting Denver (probably not advised), now is the time. This team can pull defeat from even the most promising situation, but they should absolutely win this game.
Finally, Pittsburgh. They’re favored in several spots down the line. Most appealingly, they host New England next week. Week 16 at home against the Bengals will also feature a pretty comfortable line. So, they may have more future value than these other teams.
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One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 13
With some decent mid-table options, there’s really no reason to dig deep this week. But if you must, the Atlanta Falcons present a potentially under-the-radar option.
The Jets have already announced they’re giving Tim Boyle another start. Whether this represents a good faith effort to win (it doesn’t) is its own discussion, but the fact is it creates an opportunity. Boyle is so bad that the Week 12 line moved from Miami -6.5 on look-ahead to as high as -10 before closing around -9.5.
Now, Desmond Ridder on the road against a high-quality defense could mean turnovers, which means you’re accepting a large amount of variance into your life with this pick.
And the Falcons have several similarly projected spots in the coming weeks. Two of them come at home (Buccaneers, Colts), which is typically where we prefer to gamble on a bad QB. But the Falcons aren’t the craziest pick here against probably the worst offense in the NFL at the moment.
Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 13.
Compare NFL MoneylIne Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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