NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 13 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 28, 2022
NFL survivor week 13

It was yet another week of the chalk coming home. Every favorite laying at least -6.5 in widely available markets won in Week 12, with only the Bills providing much of a sweat. Aside from folks who took shots on the Ravens, Buccaneers and Seahawks as small favorites, everyone moves on to NFL survivor Week 13.

If you are still alive, our congratulations. Your NFL survivor pool should be close to the endgame at this point. Each week, you must try to get inside the heads of your opponents. Which sides do they have available and which ways will they gravitate? One good week can win you the pool now, so be extra diligent.

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Editor’s Note

NFL Survivor Week 13: The Obvious Chalk

Moneylines below from Caesars Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid as of Nov. 29.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Cowboys-440~78%vs. IND16.2
Ravens-385~76%vs. DEN4.9
Browns-335~73%@ HOU33.7

The Ravens have played a pretty difficult schedule thus far, but things ease up for them down the stretch. That starts with a matchup against the woeful Broncos, who seem to sink to new offensive lows each week. This week, they posted a disgusting 3.3 YPA dropping back despite spending much of the game down double digits against the Carolina Panthers. The Ravens should absolutely win, but home games against the Steelers and Falcons remain.

Perhaps the most interesting team to examine for NFL survivor Week 13 is the Cleveland Browns. The long-anticipated — both in a positive and negative sense — return of Deshaun Watson has finally come. And it comes just in time in terms of survivor. Facing the Texans, albeit on the road, this looks like the last time this season the Browns will be touchdown favorites.

Don’t be fooled by their Week 12 score, either. The Dolphins could have won that game by 40 if they felt so inclined. Houston has the worst team in the NFL by some distance.

The potential downside is obvious. Having not played in a professional game since the 2020 season, how much rust must Watson knock off? Maybe it doesn’t matter. Maybe the team can simply hand off repeatedly and destroy this Houston defense. But, it’s reasonable to expect Watson won’t simply return to the top-five level of play he has previously showed.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Buccaneers-250~69%vs. NO3.9
Eagles-240~68%vs. TEN0.9
Bills-240~68%@ NE1.5
Seahawks-220~68%@ LAR12.7

Most of these teams have likely already been used in survivor. The exception: the Seahawks. They have a delicious spot even on the road here heading to LA to face the wreckage that remains of the Rams.

We already knew the Rams would play without Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford for the foreseeable future if not the rest of the season. But the damage spread even further with admittedly underperforming wideout Allen Robinson also hitting the IR with a season-ending injury.

The result was an expectedly awful offensive performance against the Chiefs. The Rams pulled out all of the tricks, including a fake punt, and got gifted a red zone turnover and a muffed punt. But they still got pasted by double digits and had an anemic 3 YPA dropping back despite facing a not particularly intimidating defense.

The Seahawks do get to host the Panthers in Week 14. So, you’ll likely have to decide between those two options if you want the best remaining spot to play Geno Smith and Co.

Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 13

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Packers-135~55%@ CHI1.8
Falcons-125~53%vs. PIT0.7

Before about 11 p.m. ET on Sunday night, it would have been insane to recommend entrusting your survivor life to Jordan Love. He had shown absolutely nothing, either in preseason or in his regular season spot starts, to suggest he was ready to lead an NFL team to victories.

Then, the Packers lost Aaron Rodgers to an injury, one unrelated to the broken thumb he was reportedly already playing through. And Love showed signs of life, signs he’s never shown before. He looked sharp leading consecutive scoring drives, albeit against an Eagles team protecting two-score leads.

If Love can maintain that level of play, there’s absolutely no reason the team shouldn’t beat a Bears squad that seems likely to leave Justin Fields on ice. Of course, watch the QB situation on both sides closely.

Atlanta has a minus sign by their name and they get to face a Steelers team working on a short week after a Monday Night Football road game. That’s about all we can say to recommend that one. If you’re desperate and have fired all of the high-value bullets, you can take a look.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 13.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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