NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 13 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 29, 2021

Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for NFL fans in recent years. Big brands like DraftKings and Circa are among those offering monster prizes in 2021. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL survivor Week 13 plays.

You must start to factor in which sides will be most popular if you haven’t already. It’s time to go for the win. If you can cleanly project where the remaining players are going with their pick, do everything you can to avoid that side.

Never has that been more clear than in Week 12. With tons of players clicking the Cowboys — the biggest favorites of the week — most pools that haven’t already crowned champs should be down to a few competitors.

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NFL Survivor Week 13: Three Big Favorites

Moneylines below from DraftKings Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid. Note that pick percentages are not available early Monday and will be added to this piece at a later time.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Rams-720~84%vs. JACTBD
Chiefs-450~78%vs. DENTBD
Buccaneers-425~77%@ ATLTBD

Most likely, you’ve already used all three of these teams. In the event you have any left, hopefully you kept the Rams in the back pocket. They would appear to have the easiest assignment with the Jaguars coming to town, and they also have an exceptionally nasty closing schedule. They only project as decent favorites at home against Seattle.

That being said, this team hasn’t put forth a good performance against a team outside the comic relief tier since trouncing the Giants. That came back in mid-October. They’re difficult to trust but it’s probably now or never and Jaguars are truly atrocious.

Tampa Bay looked shaky as well. But, even the bumbling current version of the Bucs should roll over this extremely limited Atlanta team. Both Football Outsiders and PFF rate this pass rush as the league’s worst. Tom Brady will have an eternity to throw.

The Chiefs have the most difficult assignment, against the Broncos. Andy Reid is legendary for his teams’ sharp performance off the bye, though. They just need to slow down this Broncos rushing attack, and the depleted nature of the offensive line will aid that cause.

Five More Road Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Colts-365~75%@ HOUTBD
Cardinals-335~73%@ CHITBD
Eagles-305~72%@ NYJTBD
Vikings-280~71%@ DETTBD
Cowboys-250~68%@ NOTBD

Short to medium road favorites are always a little dicey in the NFL, but assuming you’ve used the big guns above, you’ve got little choice. So, which of these road favorites can you somewhat safely roll with and which ones are the most likely landmines?

The most obvious choice and likely most popular of this bunch due to the last of clear walkovers in their schedule looks like the Philadelphia Eagles. They do get the Giants at home in a fairly tough Week 16, but other than that, this looks like the spot for Philly. The Jets‘ poor pass defense has gotten some ink, but their run D is sneaky bad also, ranking 29th in EPA/play.

An Eagles team that has pounded the rock like none other of late should have a nice bounce back. If anything, they’re likely undervalued in the market after a 6-point loss in which they dropped multiple TDs.

If you saved Arizona, feel free to fire away there also. We have to expect Kyler Murray back this week, and the Bears defense has lost its potency without Khalil Mack and several other solid starters.

Circa players, if you’re still reading, congratulations first of all. The Cardinals’ Christmas-week game against Indianapolis no longer looks like a layup, so it would probably be wise to pivot to Green Bay or San Francisco, assuming you haven’t used them, and load up the Cards here.

Finally, we have a total wild card in Dallas playing in New Orleans. Both teams have major questions — the Cowboys with COVID and the Saints with injuries. But, if they trot out similar groups to those that hit the field last week, the Cowboys should definitely win here.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option for NFL Survivor Week 13

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Dolphins-150~58%@ NYGTBD

If you’ve used all of the good options, a distinct possibility at this point, then you might need to dive a little deeper. In that case, the Dolphins present a half-decent buy opportunity.

Miami’s season turned in a competitive loss to the Bills in which the defense finally came to life. They’ve won four straight since, the latest of which saw them completely dominate the Panthers. Weak offenses just don’t have anything for a suddenly stout defense. Top draftee Jaelan Phillips adds to their stash of weapons. He might be turning the corner after a three-sack effort.

The Giants, off a 264-yard day, certainly qualify as a weak offense. They’re 25th in EPA/play and Daniel Jones will find himself on the run against the blitz-happy Fins. Everyone saw how that went against the Bucs last Monday.

Good luck in NFL survivor Week 13.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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