NFL Survivor Week 12 Picks, Win Probability Tool: Texans Or Dolphins?

With NFL survivor pools reaching the endgame, TheLines.com’s Pro Football Survivor contest has nine entries after starting with nearly 2,000 in the $10,000 pool, with one more player pending the Texans on Monday night. Let’s explore some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 12 picks. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 12 odds.

In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a three-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click “PLAY NOW” in the banner below to get started.

NFL Survivor Week 11 Recap

Most of the favorites came through this week, including the Lions, the biggest of the week, in an incredibly dominating fashion. The Jets and Ravens were short favorites, but neither was an attractive or popular survivor play.

The exception was the 49ers. At home against the Seahawks, they fell to a last-minute Geno Smith touchdown scramble. Smith hit the “night-night” celebration for the 49ers, but he equally laid to rest some survivor entries, including a handful in both TheLines’ contest and the big Circa one.

NFL Survivor Week 12: Top Projected Win Percentages

Here are some reminders when it comes to NFL survivor picks:

• You must plan for the long term.
• You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
• Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
• Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

Team	ML	Implied Win%	Opp.	Popularity
Chiefs	-590	~82.7%	@ CAR	Subscribe
Commanders	-520	~80.2%	vs. DAL	Subscribe
Lions	-375	~76.8%	@ IND	Subscribe
Texans	-375	~76.8%	vs. TEN	Subscribe
Dolphins	-340	~69.6%	vs. NE	Subscribe

NFL Survivor Week 12 Picks: The Obvious Chalk

Is it finally Chiefs week? Yes, the Chiefs have been winning, but they played a rather tough schedule that eases up considerably now down the stretch. Many survivor players likely still have them in the bank, and now they play the easiest game of their season in Carolina.

Of course, Circa players are in a different boat due to the holiday slates, both of which feature the Chiefs. But this should be something close to a free win, like the Lions in Week 11. Of course, the Chiefs also get the Raiders at home in Week 13.

This is also the Commanders’ best spot in the remaining season, per PoolGenius. Like K.C., they have an extremely winnable Week 13 game (vs. TEN).

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Miami and Houston also have their most valuable remaining games. It is a week with plenty of chalky options indeed. Houston still has another road game with Tennessee, and it gets the tattered remnants of the Jaguars in Week 13 (albeit on the road). So, if you haven’t already done so, there’s a bit more urgency to use the Dolphins.

It’s hard to quibble with any of these options.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

This section doesn’t have a lot of appeal this week, considering how strong the top favorites look.

Are the Broncos suddenly on the survivor radar? After thumping the Falcons, they’re garnering increased market respect. However, it’s hard to be confident that we click on them in a divisional road spot. They’re probably better used the following week at home versus Cleveland. PoolGenius wholeheartedly agrees.

Tampa Bay draws the Giants after they seemingly threw up the white flag for the year. New York will start Tommy DeVito for football reasons, of course. Not because they want to fade the injury guarantees on Daniel Jones’ deal. It’s on the road, but the Bucs should make mincemeat of this squad after the bye.

Still, the Bucs have robust future value with two games against Carolina.

• Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord — with over 4,800 community members and our staff sharing bets daily.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 12 Picks

It’s another poor week for picking short favorites as well. Not only do the bigger favorites hold a lot of appeal, but the shorter favorites are mostly on the road, facing solid opponents, and have much better spots elsewhere on the schedule.

The only team that might come close is the Steelers in Cleveland. But that game makes little sense, considering they get the Browns at home just a few weeks later. PoolGenius is understandably more enthused about that spot.

My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 12 Picks

There is so much to choose from this week.

Houston looks like quite a good play to me. It’s a short week against a divisional foe, which leaves a couple of boxes unchecked here. But it’s hard to see how Will Levis can move the ball against this defense, which gave the mighty Detroit offense all it could handle.

That spot looks considerably better than the Dolphins facing the frisky Patriots. Drake Maye looks like he could beat just about anyone on a good day.

Of course, taking any of the huge favorites is understandable, as well.

Good luck with your NFL survivor Week 12 picks.

Compare NFL Moneyline Odds

The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.

21+ at most sportsbooks; gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER