NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 12 Win Probabilities Tool
NFL Survivor picks have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. DraftKings is one of the sports betting sites that offers pools as well throughout the season, not just before Week 1. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options and teams most likely to win. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 12 plays, which feature a couple of very intriguing short-ish favorites in dreamy matchups. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 12 odds.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
NFL Survivor Week 11 Recap
Week 11 survivor saw ho-hum wins from all of the big favorites … except for the Washington Commanders. And it just so happens, in most pools, the Commanders led the way in terms of ownership. Therefore, despite the majority of chalk coming home, there was actually quite a bit of survivor bloodshed this week, including more than a third of the big Circa contest going bust.
NFL Survivor Week 12 has no byes, so players are back to getting a full menu to choose from. There are no clear super-chalk spots, as the usual suspects populate the top of the favorites board. A couple of very interesting options exist down the ballot as well.
Here are some NFL Survivor reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
NFL Survivor Week 12: Projected Win Percentages
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The Obvious Chalk
The chalk this week depends entirely on usage rates in various pools. With the amount of wins these teams have racked up, most of them have likely been used up by the survivor players who have advanced this far. Taking the chalk can be fine if you’re very confident and have minimal pivoting opportunities, but just be careful of getting stuck into a side that can sink a majority of your pool if your opponents’ usages have mirrored your own.
That is if you saved Dallas for this week, but the majority of your opponents did the same while using these other favorites, consider a switch even if you still like Dallas.
Of course, the Cowboys, Lions, Dolphins, and 49ers hold a special level of significance in the Circa pool, with the holiday slate requiring a pick.
Of these teams, Kansas City would seem to be in the safest position, followed possibly by Miami. While that may sound odd with the Cowboys as bigger favorites, remember that the quality of the opposition’s passing offense can drive a lot of variance and, therefore, upsets. Dallas probably wins by 20+ more frequently than those teams, but they might lose more often, too, as Sam Howell and Co. demonstrated with two near upsets of the Eagles.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
Thankfully for survivor players scrounging for value outside of the top few, the middle of the board looks pretty user-friendly this week.
Start with the Titans. They get arguably the best situation a team can have in 2023, hosting the Carolina Panthers. Will Levis can’t be trusted to beat a single NFL team, sure. But the fact is the Titans are rightful favorites against a team with one win and an incredibly inept offense.
And if hosting Carolina isn’t the best situation, then hosting the New York Giants on their third-string QB wins that prize. Doing so off the bye? So much the better. Add in Bill Belichick’s special recipe of defensive looks to confuse a young QB, and you have all the ingredients for a rare Patriots win.
Both Tennessee and New England don’t have a single game the rest of the way in which PoolGenius projects 60% win equity. In fact, neither even has a 55% spot. So, they have zero future value and tremendous Week 12 matchups. Risky, sure, but enticing as well.
Minnesota isn’t too far behind these teams, checking many similar boxes hosting the Bears. However, the Bears just continue to look downright frisky, nearly beating Detroit on the road in Week 11. Justin Fields coming back into the fold and playing like he did raises their ceiling considerably, so buyer beware there.
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One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 12
There are a ton of short favorites this week. Do any of them hold any appeal?
Perhaps Denver does? Dorian Thompson-Robinson secured his first professional win, but it was hardly impressive. At home against a Steelers team that has given up yards in bunches at times, he managed a horrific 3.7 YPA dropping back. That just isn’t going to get it done on a consistent basis, and now he heads on the road to one of the few places that actually builds in real home-field advantage.
Tennessee and New England look like better options, but there will undoubtedly be some brave souls who click on Denver, and it isn’t entirely insane.
Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 12.
Compare NFL MoneylIne Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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