NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 12 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 21, 2022
NFL survivor week 12

After weeks of abject chaos, things seem to have settled down somewhat in NFL survivor. With the exception of the Eagles‘ face plant against the Commanders (and pending the 49ers on Monday Night Football), the chalk has continued to dominate in recent weeks. The Giants and Packers did cause a handful of bustouts in the big Circa contest, but other than that, it’s on to NFL survivor Week 12 for most players who saw Weeks 10 and 11.

If you are still alive, our congratulations. Your NFL survivor pool should be close to the endgame at this point. Each week, you must try to get inside the heads of your opponents. Which sides do they have available and which ways will they gravitate? One good week can win you the pool now, so be extra diligent.

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Editor’s Note

NFL Survivor Week 12: The Obvious Chalk

Moneylines below from Caesars Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid as of Nov. 22.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Chiefs-1000~87%vs. LAR2.9
Dolphins-650~83%vs. HOU56.6

Few could have imagined the Chiefs laying more than two touchdowns to the Rams when this game was scheduled. Yet, that’s where the situation stands after Matthew Stafford endured another hit that landed him in concussion protocol. With backup John Wolford on ice injured himself, it fell to third-stringer Bryce Perkins against the Saints. He did not inspire much in taking three sacks and tallying less than 5 YPA dropping back.

But, the Chiefs still have several easy games left. Most notably at Houston in Week 15.

That’s not the case for the Dolphins. Speaking of the Texans, Miami gets to play this pathetic football team, which got buried again in Week 11. The 23-10 final is kind to the Texans. This was 20-0 in the first half before the Commanders eased off the gas.

Miami should destroy this team, but they also have a very difficult schedule down the stretch. It’s loaded with road games and tough opponents. In fact, every single game they play after this one comes against a team rated in the top half of the league by TheLines’ staff in NFL power rankings entering Week 11 (the Packers and Jets may slide into the 17-20 range).

The only reason not to play Miami this week is if you’re in the endgame and expect your opponents to play them. Even then, it may be good to kick the can down the road to next week.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Bills-440~78%@ DET5.8
Cowboys-400~77%vs. NYG4.4
49ers-385~76%vs. NO9.3
Eagles-305~72%vs. GB0.3

It’s pending the result of Monday Night Football, but the 49ers look like a fine play this week. The Saints got a layup facing the Rams with a third-string QB taking some of the snaps in Week 11. When they’ve stepped up to quality competition this year, they’ve been handled easily for the most part with clear-cut losses to the Bucs, Bengals and Ravens.

If the 49ers don’t strangle this offense at home, it would be a surprise.

If you somehow haven’t use the Eagles, they’re in an interesting spot. Most of their easiest games have passed already and the team has looked a bit rickety in recent weeks. Now, the Packers looked listless as well on Thursday Night Football. But, playing for any hope of playoff contention the rest of the way, we should see their best efforts on a weekly basis.

It’s difficult to have gotten to this point without using most or all of these teams. If you have any left, but you already used Miami, none looks a great deal more appealing than the others.

Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 12

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Jets-260~69%vs. CHI2.7
Commanders-178~62%vs. ATL2.1

Sure, it’s difficult to trust the New York Jets after they absolutely no-showed on offense against the Patriots. You could watch every NFL game for the next five years and you might not see a worse offensive performance than what the Jets showcased.

But, this is still an elite defense. And most importantly, they may get a layup of an assignment here against Trevor Siemian. Justin Fields appeared to sustain a shoulder injury. His availability is in question going forward. And after what the Bears have seen the past few weeks, they have dual motivations to be careful: Fields looks like the potential franchise QB they hoped for, plus piling more losses up can only help them build a better team around him.

The Jets should bounce back here as the Bears hit full tanking mode.

If you took the Commanders as a sneaky play last week, they’re obviously off the board and you advanced. If you didn’t, then now looks like the time. The Falcons rely heavily on their rushing attack — only the Bears run more often — but the Commanders rank top four in both EPA/play and Success Rate allowed there.

The Commanders look like a solid down-ballot play as they won’t be bigger favorites all year most likely, and they match up well.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 12.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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