NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 12 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 28, 2021

Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for NFL fans in recent years. Big brands like DraftKings and Circa are among those offering monster prizes in 2021. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL survivor Week 12 plays.

If you have made it this far, congratulations. Every survivor field that hasn’t ended has been whittled down to the end-game or at least close in very large contests. Even more so after the Texans managed to topple the Titans as massive underdogs. Now, we will start to discuss some end-game considerations in our analysis.

You must start to factor in which sides will be most popular if you haven’t already. It’s time to go for the win. If you can cleanly project where the remaining players are going with their pick, do everything you can to avoid that side.

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NFL Survivor Week 12: The Closest Thing To A Big Favorite

Moneylines below from DraftKings Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid. Note that pick percentages are not available early Monday and will be added to this piece at a later time.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Cowboys-320~73%vs. LV20.7

Week 12 is a unique week of NFL action. For the first time since Week 1, there isn’t a single double-digit favorite on the odds board. What’s more, Circa players must select two winners this week, one on Thursday and one on Sunday.

In other words, expect some blood.

The Dallas Cowboys are the biggest favorite, and they aren’t exactly what you would call a lock at .

The big question here is what will the Cowboys look like? They lost Amari Cooper (COVID) and CeeDee Lamb (injured) before and during the Chiefs game, respectively. That came in addition to the continued absence of star LT Tyron Smith. Dak Prescott looked lost without his support crew as he had under 150 yards passing until a garbage time drive ended in his second pick.

The defense still has its top two pass rushers on IR, although Micah Parsons filled in ably there against KC.

All of these factors make the Cowboys a bit of a dicey selection. Twice in three games now they’ve looked like a team you shouldn’t trust against decent opposition in survivor. It’s probably worth avoiding them in a high-variance spot if you expect the opposition to play that way.

The Slightly Riskier Medium Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Patriots-255~69%vs. TEN7.2
Bills-210~65%@ NO2.6
Bengals-21065%vs. PIT2.8
Ravens-200~64%vs. CLE9.5

The Bills looked like they had, if not layups, at least several free throws down the stretch. All of a sudden they look pretty vulnerable after losing to Jacksonville then getting blasted by Indianapolis in a three-week stretch. This team has played a butter-soft schedule that’s about to get quite a bit tougher down the stretch.

At New Orleans does not look like a particularly inviting spot even with Trevor Siemian as the opposing QB. Sure, the Eagles just shredded them on the ground, but that game plan won’t work for the NFL’s 24th-rated run blocking unit according to PFF. And you can bet the Saints will test a run D that has been great this year but a major problem in years past.

Most survivor players probably used the Patriots against the Jets or Texans. If you for some reason avoided these spots, they look like a suddenly fine play against a Titans offense that has looked lost without Derrick Henry.

Both Cincinnati and Baltimore look like risky yet solid plays considering the paucity of options this week. Neither has a single freebie left on the schedule, so use these teams if you need to game plan for several weeks still or you feel certain opponents are using the bigger favorites.

Lamar Jackson should return well-rested after missing Week 11, and the Browns looked about as putrid as a winning NFL team could against Detroit. They’ve been horrible in back-to-back weeks now. It sure looks like that route of Cincy was the outlier in their recent results. Baker Mayfield will face a ton of pressure against the Ravens and he looks incapable of handling that right now.

Cincy gets to face the short-handed Steelers, but the equation may change if TJ Watt and Joe Haden return.

Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options for NFL Survivor Week 12

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Bears-170~61%@ DET9.9
Texans-155~59%vs. NYJ4.9

Again, going this far down the board shouldn’t be necessary in most cases. If it somehow is, the Bears actually look like a fairly decent options here considering the dreck the Lions have produced on offense the past two weeks.

In back-to-back games, Detroit has produced 77 net passing yards. That isn’t easy to do in 2021, and you can bet your bottom dollar they won’t continue to cover the spread with a passing offense that anemic. Opponents have handed them five turnovers in that span to keep the games close.

The Bears should be small favorites no matter who starts at QB. Just make sure they get some of their key defenders back. Eddie Jackson and Akiem Hicks both missed the past game, so the defense made Tyler Huntley look like a serviceable QB.

As for the Texans, the appeal is limited to one factor and one factor only: you’ll never click on this team again under any circumstances aside from some opponent having to start a WR at QB a la the 2020 Denver Broncos. Consider pinching your nose and firing in double-picks formats, but beware the sudden competence Joe Flacco brings at QB.

Good luck in NFL survivor Week 12.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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