NFL Survivor Week 11 Picks, Win Probability Tool: Chalky Dolphins?
With NFL survivor pools reaching the endgame, TheLines.com’s Pro Football Survivor contest has 11 entries remaining after starting with nearly 2,000 in the $10,000 pool. Five more contestants busted in Week 10 thanks to various small and medium favorites. Let’s explore some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 11 picks. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 11 odds.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a three-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click “PLAY NOW” in the banner below to get started.
NFL Survivor Week 10 Recap
Almost a third of the big Circa field busted. The Bears and Giants accounted for a majority of the losses. Still, more entries in many pools likely needed the Chiefs to come through and saw a miracle field goal block give them a last-second escape.
On the other hand, the Chargers carried the most ownership in nearly every pool, and nobody had to sweat that one.
NFL Survivor Week 11: Top Projected Win Percentages
Here are some reminders when it comes to NFL survivor picks:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Popularity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | -750 | ~85.2% | vs. JAC | Subscribe |
| Dolphins | -380 | ~76.9% | vs. LV | Subscribe |
| Texans | -350 | ~75.2% | @ DAL | Subscribe |
| 49ers | -290 | ~71.7% | vs. SEA | Subscribe |
| Vikings | -250 | ~69.6% | @ TEN | Subscribe |
NFL Survivor Week 11 Picks: The Obvious Chalk
Although Detroit is by far the biggest favorite of the week — and one of the biggest of the entire season — Miami looks as though it’ll probably lead ownership in most pools.
Remember that hardly anyone has used the Dolphins and is still in a contest. They played with a backup quarterback for much of the year, and their only wins after Week 1 have come as small favorites and underdogs.
Everyone still alive will target Miami this week or next (vs. NE). On Monday, the Dolphins looked more like their old selves and will face the Raiders at home. Note, however, that Las Vegas does come in off a bye.
Detroit makes a fine play for obvious reasons. The Jaguars will probably be without starting QB Trevor Lawrence, at least if the early line is any indication.
Houston has also suddenly become an attractive play. Dallas looked utterly inept on offense without Dak Prescott. Considering how good Houston’s defense looked on Sunday night, it’s scary to think what it could do here.
The Texans, too, have an easy Week 12 game (vs. TEN). The key here will be anticipating how ownership shakes out in your league between this week and next.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
Green Bay has the most appeal of the medium favorites, as its schedule becomes quite difficult in the coming weeks. Now that Miami is a solid team again, the Packers’ easiest spot is Week 16, when they host New Orleans. Smaller pools might not make it to that point, so playing them here might make sense for some people.
On the other hand, it’s still a divisional road game.
The Rams don’t look like they’ll be favored again until Week 17 (vs. ARI). New England is no longer a free win, especially on the road. But if you need to make it to the end of the season in a big pool, the Rams make a lot of sense here.
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One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 11 Picks
It’s not a good week for smaller favorites because almost all of them have significantly easier games down the road. Such teams include Buffalo, Baltimore, and Philly.
They might belong more in the medium favorites category, but perhaps the New York Jets could be in play hosting the Colts. They’re hard to trust after yet another flop against Arizona, but due to their run/pass splits, the Jets should actually fare a bit better against Joe Flacco than Anthony Richardson.
The Jets have a few similarly projected games as small favorites coming up. But if you didn’t use them in Week 2 or Week 3, they might be in play here.
My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 11 Picks
Miami and Houston make a lot of sense to me this week, so pay attention to your opponents’ availability. Taking the team they don’t have or won’t pick should put you in a good spot.
Another option is to burn Detroit and hope one of those two teams loses.
In larger pools that will see the end of the season, I like the Rams. They should bounce back even though it’s a long road trip. Then again, I’ve been guilty of underestimating the Patriots at times this year, so perhaps I’m doing so again.
Good luck with your NFL survivor Week 11 picks.
Compare NFL Moneyline Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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