NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 11 Win Probabilities Tool

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
NFL survivor week 11

NFL Survivor picks have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. DraftKings is one of the sports betting sites that offers pools as well throughout the season, not just before Week 1. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options and teams most likely to win. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 11 plays, which feature another potential bottleneck as a ton of entries will take Washington in most pools. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 11 odds.

In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.

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NFL Survivor Week 10 Recap

Week 10 survivor saw many pools bottleneck with Dallas, but they rampaged to a sweat-free win against the Giants. Another big favorite, however, fell. Houston caught a bunch of late steam against the Bengals, and sure enough, they won outright after blowing a big lead. The Bengals and, to a lesser extent, the Ravens eliminated about 40% of the big Circa pool.

NFL Survivor Week 11 will feature another heavy dose of the “fade Tommy DeVito” strategy. Players will have to decide how chalky they are willing to get as ownership may resemble Seattle vs. Arizona in Week 7.

Here are some NFL Survivor reminders:

  • You must plan for the long term.
  • You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
  • Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
  • Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

NFL Survivor Week 11: Projected Win Percentages

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The Obvious Chalk

Washington is going to carry a ton of ownership this week. They have the delightful combination of hosting DeVito and the punchless Giants and having been used on very few survivor cards. Oh, and PoolGenius does not project them to be favored the rest of the season. Add it all up, and we could see greater than 50% ownership in many pools.

Ownership aside, it’s certainly hard to make a case against the Commanders. The Giants scored 17 second-half points against Dallas when the game was essentially over. Despite that garbage time, DeVito has led the Giants to a total of seven points when the game has been within three scores across three games of NFL action. On that singular drive, DeVito contributed zero passing yards.

Is there a case for any other underdog rising up? Unless Detroit finds itself in another shootout — which likely means Justin Fields has returned — probably not. At that point, picking just comes down to availability and future value. San Francisco and Detroit would appear to have the easiest schedules going forward, among the big favorites.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

The medium favorites are interesting because several have difficult schedules coming up, meaning the time may be running out to pick them unless your survivor pool will likely see the end of the season.

For example, check out Buffalo’s upcoming schedule:

Arizona Cardinals 4 – 13 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
Miami Dolphins 11 – 6 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 12, 2024
Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – 8 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 23, 2024

Beyond the Eagles game (then a bye), they get the Chiefs, Cowboys and Chargers. Only the Dallas game comes at home. The Jets’ inept offense makes them a potential target, but Josh Allen has had extreme difficulty against that bunch when it comes to limiting turnovers.

Jacksonville has much the same story. They don’t have another appealing spot until Week 17, hosting Carolina.

PoolGenius doesn’t project Houston as this big a favorite again. Unless home games against Tennessee and Denver hold particular appeal, this may be the last chance to click on them as well.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 11

This is not a great week for contrarian options. Seattle would become a decent play should Matt Stafford miss another week of action. But, at that point, they’d cease to become contrarian and close as a medium favorite, although they’ll likely carry low ownership because of the glut of Week 7 usage. Keep an eye on how that injury situation develops.

The only other team that might fit is Denver. They host New England in Week 16 and are not survivor-viable outside of that.

However, on a short week, and with Josh Dobbs seeming to gel in his new Minnesota environment, the Broncos don’t present anything other than a last-ditch option if you’ve used every single other decent favorite.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 11.

Compare NFL MoneylIne Odds

The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.

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