NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 11 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 14, 2022
NFL survivor week 11

The chalk basically swept the board in NFL survivor Week 10 (Eagles pending for Monday Night Football), so most pools probably didn’t see much turnover. Aggressive players going for the Bears and Raiders did get punished, and the Circa field saw just over 15% bust on those. Onto NFL Survivor Week 11.

If you are still alive, our congratulations. Your NFL survivor pool should be close to the endgame at this point. Each week, you must try to get inside the heads of your opponents. Which sides do they have available and which ways will they gravitate? One good week can win you the pool now, so be extra diligent.

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Editor’s Note

NFL Survivor Week 11: The Obvious Chalk

Moneylines below from Caesars Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid as of Nov. 15.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Ravens-650~83%vs. CAR41.4

The Ravens stand alone in NFL survivor Week 11 as monster favorites over the visiting Panthers. Baltimore comes off a bye and not many teams can use it more, with Mark Andrews a key cog on the mend. The Ravens were a very popular play in Week 1, but if you didn’t pull the trigger then, you will very likely have them available. That makes them a bit of a layup in this spot.

Carolina has played mostly well with PJ Walker at QB but will reintroduce Baker Mayfield as the starter after an injury to Walker. Baltimore isn’t as strong against the run as they’ve been in years past. So, if Andrews isn’t healthy, the revitalized rushing attack with D’Onta Foreman could gain some traction here.

If you’ve used the Ravens, or your rivals still have them available, it may be best to pivot. Several other teams are large favorites, albeit not as large as Baltimore. And their schedule has cleared up somewhat down the stretch. They’re now projected as -7 favorites or bigger in three remaining games, starting with versus Broncos in Week 13.

Game theory likely dictates your choice here.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Bills-455~78%vs. CLE14.9
Eagles-385~76%@ IND2.2
49ers-345~74%vs. ARI (Mexico)10
Chiefs-320~73%@ LAC1

These teams have established themselves as the relatively clear top three in the league, with the 49ers additionally coming in close to a consensus No. 4 in TheLines’ NFL power rankings.

The Chiefs draw the most difficult of these assignments playing the Chargers across the country. However, much hinges on the availability of top WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. If the two oft-injured pass catchers remain on ice, this should be a fairly clear Chiefs win.

With KC the most popular play in many pools last week, now’s a pretty good time to use them.

In leagues where you can only pick against a team once, the Bills make plenty of sense. The time to fade the Browns draws to a close soon with Deshaun Watson on his way back. The market expects a rebound after two poor performances, although Buffalo should clearly have beaten the Vikings.

The 49ers have the toughest schedule the rest of the way, but still plenty of playable spots. So, there’s no particular urgency to use any of these teams and it likely depends on who you have left in the bag and who your opponents will click on.

Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 11

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Giants-178~62%vs. DET6.8
Commanders-135~55%@ HOU8.1

Several interesting options dot the bottom of the favorites board in Week 11. We’ll highlight a pair of NFC East teams here.

This is going to be the best spot remaining to play the Giants. Most likely, if you got this far, you’ve used the surprising Giants at some point, as they just keep winning for the most part. But if you haven’t, home to Lions looks like the spot. Unless your pool is really close to ending, this looks like a pretty great sneaky side. Particularly so after the Lions unjustly beat the Bears in game in which they were soundly outplayed.

More widely available will likely be the Commanders. Playing at Texans, they get the fairly clear bottom team in the league. However, Davis Mills has been quite a bit better at home over the course of his career.

Washington will also probably be comparable home favorites against the Falcons the following week.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 11.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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