NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 11 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 21, 2021
NFL survivor Week 11

Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for NFL fans in recent years. Big brands like DraftKings and Circa are among those offering monster prizes in 2021. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL survivor Week 11 plays.

If you have made it this far, congratulations. Every survivor field that hasn’t ended has been whittled down to the end-game or at least close in very large contests. Now, we will start to discuss some end-game considerations in our analysis.

You must start to factor in which sides will be most popular if you haven’t already. It’s time to go for the win. If you can cleanly project where the remaining players are going with their pick, do everything you can to avoid that side.

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NFL Survivor Week 11: The Three Big Favorites

Moneylines below from DraftKings Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid. Note that pick percentages are not available early Monday and will be added to this piece at a later time.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Buccaneers-630~83%vs. NYG10.1
Titans-510~79%vs. HOU47.9
Browns-475~79%vs. DET20.8

All three of these teams look like pretty obvious home winners against league cellar-dwellers. Which one you favor most should largely be informed by availability of the other remaining contestants. It’s as simple as that.

None of these three have played especially easy schedules, though. In particular, the Browns have combined a tough schedule with injury woes, so they seem like a great choice if you have them available. Detroit ruined countless survivor entries last week but between questionable refereeing and the fact they had 77 net passing yards, you probably don’t need to worry about them sustaining anything positive.

Cleveland has minimal future value. Click them now or never, most likely.

The Bucs look good on paper but the issue here is continued injury woes to this corps of pass catchers. This passing game simply does not look scary without Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin continually getting open short. Rob Gronkowski also looked rejuvenated in the early part of the season.

The loss to Washington didn’t look like a fluke. Make sure Brady has his weapons available before you trust this team.

The Titans are another team trying to get it done despite a rash on impactful injuries. They should be safe enough here against a dreadful Houston team. But, they performed poorly on offense again against the Saints. The matchup here does look more favorable as Tyrod Taylor has been known to hold the ball too long and the Titans’ pass rush remains healthy and fierce.

The Mostly Dicey Medium Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Bills-335~73%vs. IND0.6
Ravens-260~69%@ CHI3.7
Patriots-260~69%@ ATL3.6
49ers-255~69%@ JAC6.4

This is a group you should eye with some skepticism. We can’t really recommend these teams if you have the above teams available. But, if you can’t pick those for whatever reason (availability, opponent availability, etc.), you have to sift into this group.

This looks like the last week you can comfortably select the Ravens. However, the boom-or-bust nature of this offense makes for a very scary selection in survivor, where we crave stability and floor.

The Bears and Justin Fields also showed real growth in what should arguably have been a win at Pittsburgh. If Fields can sustain that type of play, the Bears are a dangerous spoiler going forward. A bye should only help them get healthier, particularly with Khalil Mack hurting.

New England romped all over Cleveland and have the look of a fringe Super Bowl contender at this point. They do bring the aforementioned floor and you can’t use them again until Week 17. If you play a format where you can only pick against a team once, you probably haven’t faded the Falcons, making New England a prime option.

The 49ers look like a potentially decent option.

The Jags may have actually improved on defense after another solid performance. The problem for them is you ultimately win in this league with passing offense. They had another anemic day there with 152 yards. Only four teams have a worse EPA/play.

The short week makes it dicey but the 49ers aren’t even semi-safe to pick until Week 15 at the earliest.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option for NFL Survivor Week 11

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Dolphins-155~59%@ NYJ1.4

You really shouldn’t have much need to go far down the board at this point. But, if you do, the Dolphins do look to find themselves in a decent spot heading to Week 11.

Facing the Jets on the road, the Dolphins get the extra rest coming off Thursday Night Football.

As for the matchup itself, the Mike White experience probably came to a sobering end in a 4 INT disaster against Buffalo. The Dolphins D has started to play to preseason expectations starting with their own loss to the Bills. They should shut this Jets offense completely down.

Thing is, the Dolphins still get the Jets at home in Week 15. They figure to be larger favorites then, so it probably makes more sense to avoid the chalk that week when very few will likely select Miami.

Good luck in NFL survivor Week 11.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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