NFL Survivor Week 10 Picks, Win Probability Tool: Go Contrarian With The Giants?

With NFL survivor pools reaching the endgame, TheLines.com’s Pro Football Survivor contest has 20 entries remaining (pending MNF) after starting with nearly 2,000 in the $10,000 pool. A handful of contestants were ousted in Week 9, thanks to the Saints. Let’s explore some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 10 picks. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 10 odds.

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NFL Survivor Week 9 Recap

Most of the big favorites won in Week 9. Some of them did so in a convincing fashion. I’m looking at you, Philadelphia and Buffalo. Thankfully, survivor pools don’t award bonus points for convincing victories.

Of course, the exception came in the early window on Sunday. The Panthers hosted a Saints team that beat the tar out of them in Week 1 and proceeded to spring a most unlikely upset. That 23-22 final knocked out about 21% of the big Circa contest and almost 20% of TheLines’ season-long contest.

The Chiefs still host the Bucs on Monday Night Football and will carry some survivor entries with them.

NFL Survivor Week 10: Top Projected Win Percentages

Here are some reminders when it comes to NFL survivor picks:

• You must plan for the long term.
• You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
• Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
• Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

Team	ML	Implied Win%	Opp.	Popularity
Chiefs	-450	~79.5%	vs. DEN	Subscribe
Chargers	-380	~77.1%	vs. TEN	Subscribe
Eagles	-325	~74.9%	@ DAL	Subscribe
Bears	-300	~73%	vs. NE	Subscribe
49ers	-245	~70.7%	@ TB	Subscribe

NFL Survivor Week 10 Picks: The Obvious Chalk

Many people who advanced from Week 2 already used the Chargers. If they didn’t, the Chargers look like the favored spot for this week. They get the Titans at home, and they might not be significant favorites again until Week 16 (vs. DEN).

The Chiefs, the biggest favorite of the week, have some extremely easy games coming up against two of the league’s worst (Panthers and Raiders). Plus, they have holiday slate value for Circa players.

The Eagles also suddenly find themselves on the radar for those who didn’t fire in Week 6 against the Browns. Dak Prescott sustained an injury that sounds like it will keep him out for at least a week or two. Cooper Rush will start this game now. He looked ineffective, relieving Prescott in Week 9 (4.6 YPA despite playing in a negative game script).

However, the Eagles get Carolina at home in Week 14. That will be close to a freebie, with PoolGenius projecting an 89% win probability.

In some pools, the Bears may lead the ownership. They have almost no future value, projecting as underdogs in all but one remaining game. Hosting the Patriots looks like a spot for their defense to return to dominating form after Arizona trucked the unit on the ground in Week 9.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

This week, one very interesting team is among the medium favorites. The New York Giants will face the Panthers in Germany.

The Giants are one of the weaker teams in the NFL. Their future schedule isn’t exactly littered with easy wins, with Philly, Baltimore, and Atlanta present. They also have essentially no future value. Thus, this game represents a chance to get a decent favorite you won’t consider using again.

The Panthers did show signs of life. But the last time they did that, they allowed at least 34 points in four straight games. It’s hard to imagine this will last.

If survivor contestants have somehow not used the Bills, they also merit a look. Playing in Indianapolis isn’t the easiest assignment, but the schedule becomes quite difficult after this until a soft landing in the final three weeks. If your pool isn’t likely to last long, Buffalo can be considered here.

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Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 10 Picks

There isn’t much that fits the bill lower down on the odds board. Washington and the L.A. Rams have solid spots at home, but both teams will have easier games soon. The Commanders get the Titans at home in Week 13. The Rams have even more immediate future value with a Week 11 home game against the Patriots.

PoolGenius favors both of those spots over these by quite a bit. But the Commanders and Rams are there if, for some reason, you desperately need to dig deeper.

My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 10 Picks

International games always come with variables we can’t account for. Which team will handle the travel better? Which team will stay focused?

However, I like gambling on the Giants this week and keeping the stronger teams in your back pocket. Carolina seems likely to regress again. Bryce Young’s track record is too poor for me to expect otherwise, and the Giants have no future value.

I wouldn’t recommend this strategy as much in smaller pools. But if you need to make it to the end of the season, consider the Giants here.

Good luck with NFL Survivor Week 10 picks.

Compare NFL Moneyline Odds

The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.

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