NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 10 Win Probabilities Tool
NFL Survivor picks have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. DraftKings is one of the sports betting sites that offers pools as well throughout the season, not just before Week 1. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options and teams most likely to win. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 10 plays, which feature one of the toughest slates of the year, as many of the best teams have tough matchups or byes. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 10 odds.
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NFL Survivor Week 9 Recap
Most NFL survivor pools saw little carnage in Week 9. The Saints and Browns carried nearly all the ownership in many pools, and only the Saints provided any sweat before holding off the Bears. The Falcons and Patriots may have snipped a few entries here and there, but for the most part, it was probably onto the next for most pools.
NFL Survivor Week 10 offers perhaps the layup of the season, with the Cowboys hosting the Giants. But, we’ve seen them blow a game like this once already, and some survivor players can’t use the Cowboys for one reason or another. For those players, things get a bit more interesting.
Here are some survivor reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
NFL Survivor Week 10: Projected Win Percentages
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The Obvious Chalk
One team fits above all this week, and this may become an ongoing theme in the coming weeks, depending on the health of Tyrod Taylor. But, for now, the Dallas Cowboys look like something close to a free space hosting the New York Giants and third-string QB Tommy DeVito.
DeVito actually played a bit better in Week 9 than he did last time he relieved the Giants starter. But, he remains closer to an emergency option than a player whom teams would actually be comfortable starting. And he’s now clear QB1 for the moment, with Daniel Jones having torn his ACL.
The Cowboys already trucked the Giants, 40-0, in New York. And they won both of last year’s meetings by a combined 15 against a Giants team that actually made the playoffs.
The only real concern here would be for Circa survivor players who still have the Cowboys available. They could figure prominently into Thanksgiving plans, hosting Washington. However, using the Cowboys now might allow some interesting pivots when that time comes if the rest of the contest is heavy on them.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
Most of the medium-sized favorites like Cincinnati and Buffalo have some better spots for use down the road. Particularly Buffalo, which you’re probably better off playing if or when they get a bit healthier on defense.
The exception is Seattle. The Seahawks host a Washington team in for a haul of a travel spot, and they don’t project as decent-sized favorites until Week 17, hosting Pittsburgh. Even that doesn’t figure to be a free win, and the same can be said of Week 18 in Arizona, assuming Kyler Murray is healthy and playing football again.
Does Pittsburgh fit here? The Packers had trouble moving the ball for stretches of a home game against the Rams, who don’t have a good defense. They figure to be in trouble on that side of the ball on the road against a rested Steelers team that ranks top 10 in EPA/play allowed.
Hosting Arizona and New England in back-to-back games starting Week 13 are the only other options for using Pittsburgh, most likely.
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Two Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 10
Justin Fields threw passes prior to Week 9, and the team reportedly hopes he can play in Week 10 hosting the Panthers. That represents a rare spot to fire on the Bears. However, the game taking place on Thursday could be an impediment. Since the Bears obviously have no future value, getting their QB and hosting Carolina is the only realistic spot to play them.
You probably can’t trust your entry to Tyson Bagent regardless of the opponent, so keep an eye on that situation if you can’t use Dallas.
Speaking of backup quarterbacks, Clayton Tune looked country miles below the threshold needed to play in the NFL. If he’s out there again in Week 10, then Atlanta becomes an attractive option. Atlanta has six more similar games with comparable win probability remaining, but this line will not close where it sits early in the week if Tune winds up starting.
Of course, Kyler Murray returning would change the calculus considerably and remove the Falcons from consideration.
Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 10.
Compare NFL MoneylIne Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
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