NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 10 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Brett Gibbons on November 7, 2022
NFL Survivor Week 10

Of the few players still alive in survivor, many of them saw their demise as the Jets pulled off a stunning upset of the Bills and chopped the fourth-most picked team down in Week 9. Those who rode with the Chiefs likely sweated that pick out, but those who did are still alive for Week 10. Below, we’ll look at NFL Week 10 survivor win probabilities to guide the fortunate few through another week.

If you are still alive, our congratulations. Your NFL survivor pool should be close to the endgame at this point. Each week, you must try to get inside the heads of your opponents. Which sides do they have available and which ways will they gravitate? One good week can win you the pool now, so be extra diligent.

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NFL Survivor Week 10: The Obvious Chalk

Moneylines below from Caesars Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid as of Nov. 7.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Eagles-556~85%vs. WAS5
Chiefs-476~83%vs. JAX30.9
Bills-370~79%vs. MIN1.4
49ers-333~77%vs. LAC6.7

Rinse and repeat with the three teams atop the implied win percentages this week. The Eagles, Chiefs, and Bills are all hefty favorites in Week 10. However, all three all possess tons of future value, and all have likely been heavily used by anyone making it this far in survivor.

If you had to choose a team in more or less “danger” of not winning this week, it may be Philadelphia. Though the Commanders are one of the least-trustable teams in the NFL, they do have a formidable defensive front that completely shut down Dalvin Cook and the Vikings run game a week ago. The finicky playmaking potential of Taylor Heinicke may cause some strain on the Eagles’ secondary and Philly is without Jordan Davis.

Again, it’s a longshot, but the Eagles are unlikely to finish 17-0. Both the Chiefs and Bills have reason to have bounceback weeks after a close call with a shorthanded Titans team and a loss to the Jets, respectively.

As for the 49ers, they may be a surprise guest on this list. However, the Chargers are down their top two pass catchers and there’s something not clicking in the offense. Against a defense as loaded as San Francisco and now responsible for taking care of Christian McCaffrey in primetime, the Chargers are pretty outmatched.

Don’t forget to factor in that the Niners are coming off a bye week and the Chargers are making a cross-country trip from Atlanta in this one.

Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Giants-286~74%vs. HOU29.3
Raiders-250~71%vs. IND5.4
Cowboys-233~70%@ GB1.7

The Giants play a lifeless Texans team this week and it’s no surprise they’re favored. New York is coming off a bye week while Houston is coming off a loss to the Eagles on Thursday Night Football, albeit a lot more competitive one than expected. No one in the NFL is worse at stopping the run than the Texans, opening up Saquon Barkley to have a terrific game. Barkley’s run for 70 or more yards in seven of eight played games this year and, when he does, the Giants are 7-0.

What may be frightening to some is seeing the 2-6 Raiders on this list. Vegas is fresh off blowing a 20-10 halftime lead to the Jaguars, a real reason for skepticism, but the Colts have completely mailed in their season. After benching Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger, Indianapolis also parted ways with Frank Reich. This is the NFL’s worst offensive line, giving up an exasperating nine sacks last week.

We aren’t asking for the Raiders to be any good this week, just better than the worst team in the NFL.

Finally, the Cowboys come in after a bye week to play the Packers at Lambeau Field. While the task might sound daunting, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense has been sloppy, turnover prone, and majorly ineffective all season long. Against Micah Parsons and one of the better defenses in the NFL, that streak of sloppy play may not come to an end this week.

However, with all later-season games played in Green Bay, pay attention to the weather forecast.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option For NFL Survivor Week 10

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Bears-145~59%vs. DET2.2

If you didn’t use the Bears back in Week 3 against the Texans, then chances are Chicago is still available to you. Coming fresh off a win against the Packers, many remaining may be hesitant to choose the Bears this week. These are two teams headed in vastly different directions.

Since discovering they had Justin Fields on their roster, the Bears have scored 30+ points in the last two games, including against the Patriots. Aside from notching an unrepeatable three red zone interceptions off Rodgers last week, the Lions defense has been putrid. They’re last in EPA per play and 30th in success rate allowed.

Better yet, their offense has fallen straight off a cliff. There’ll be a lot of cold feet this week in the matchup, but if you’re looking for a contrarian pick, the Bears might just be it for you.

Good luck in NFL Survivor Week 10.

Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons