NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 10 Win Probabilities Tool

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 14, 2021
NFL survivor week 10

Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for NFL fans in recent years. Big brands like DraftKings and Circa are among those offering monster prizes in 2021. Each week, TheLines will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL survivor Week 10 plays.

Blood filled the streets in NFL survivor Week 10 as bunches of players were knocked out in a rare upset-filled weekend. In ESPN’s free Survivor game, only 26,508 entries remain from the original 387,836. That’s less than 7% that have survived through nine weeks.

Everyone left must likely re-evaluate where their pool is sitting as it’s time to start determining a path to victory.

Remember that you must plan for the long term, and you must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.

Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value. Plus, avoiding the top pick of the week gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.

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NFL Survivor Week 10: The Closest Thing To A Sure Thing

Moneylines below from DraftKings Sportsbook. Pick percentages via SurvivorGrid. Note that pick percentages are not available early Monday and will be added to this piece at a later time.

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Bills-720~84%@ NYJ5.6

The Buffalo Bills crapped the bed in Week 9. They looked lethargic and predictable on offense. The defense tried valiantly to pull them to victory, but the offense simply couldn’t manage.

It was the culmination of a somewhat hidden run of underperformance as short fields and poor opposition masked the team’s decline from 2020. Josh Allen simply hasn’t been the same player and teams appear to have the pet concepts sniffed out.

Deep shots to Stefon Diggs in particular have been few and far between. A year after averaging 9.2 yards per target, Diggs has plummeted to 7.7.

Still, the opposition lines up about as favorably as possible in Week 10. The Jets got completely steamrolled by the Colts last week. Particularly if Josh Johnson is pressed into service — both Mike White and Zach Wilson look questionable — this should be an easy bounce back for Buffalo. Their focus should be there after the Jags gave them a wake-up call.

But, the Bills have plenty of easy spots down the stretch. So it’s more tempting to use one of…

The Smorgasbord Of Big Favorites

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Colts-525~80%vs. JAC10.1
Cardinals-450~79%vs. CAR7.6
Cowboys-450~78%vs. ATL12
Buccaneers-435~78%@ WAS5.1
Steelers-425~77%vs. DET33.5
Ravens-335~73%@ MIA20.3

If you didn’t use the Colts last week — and many people who survived did since they were one of the few big favorites to win — this looks like the prime spot to use them. They get a Jags team that was already bad, got a victory where they passed for 139 yards, and now has a QB nursing a sprained ankle. Oh, and they come off extra rest following a Thursday night game.

The other teams of particular note here are the Steelers and the Ravens. Each of the AFC North rivals has minimal future potential as far as survivor viability.

The Steelers get the Lions at home. It’s not a good spot as far as rest goes as the Lions come off their bye while the Steelers play off a short week following Monday Night Football. It’s a brutal matchup for the Lions, though.

They’ve made most of their hay pounding the rock, where they’ve looked legitimately good at times. Against a Steelers unit that’s sixth in rush defense DVOA, that doesn’t figure to work. Jared Goff will likely have to get something done through the air, and good luck with that against this pass rush.

Pittsburgh is an underdog in most of its remaining games and only an opposing QB injury figures to put them in play after Sunday.

The Ravens must go on the road but they get Miami. The Dolphins are simply brutal on offense but especially so if Jacoby Brissett starts. They got 3.6 yards per play and committed five turnovers against the Texans this week.

Baltimore has a nasty schedule the rest of the way with the only enticing spot another road game at Chicago next week. If you made it this far without using them, it’s a great spot to pull the trigger.

One Sneaky, Contrarian Option for NFL Survivor Week 10

TeamML Implied Win%Opp.Pick%
Seahawks+18534@ GB0

It’s slim pickings this week in survivor if you’re looking for contrarian plays. There are simply too many large favorites, and of the rest of the slate, nobody really stands out as an especially likely winner.

That is, unless a certain COVID-positive quarterback remains sidelined. Then this pick, which looks like lunacy at first glance, becomes viable.

Aaron Rodgers tested positive early enough that he can (barely) become available before Week 10 when Green Bay hosts Seattle. However, it’s not certain he will certain. He must still pass protocols and show no symptoms.

Should he miss Week 10, the Seahawks may suddenly be in a great spot, so long as Russell Wilson returns.

Packers backup QB Jordan Love looked poor and generally not ready to start NFL games in the loss to the Chiefs. They’ll likely be small home underdogs if he’s again forced into action.

That would make the Seahawks a team of interest, particularly in survivor leagues where you can’t pick against the same team more than once. You won’t have another really good spot to fade Green Bay.

Good luck in NFL survivor Week 10.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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