NFL Survivor Pool Week 1 Picks & Win Probability Tool
NFL Survivor pools have become one of the most popular gambling options for fans in recent years. Nationally recognized brands post contests with millions of dollars in prizes. Sharps and newbies alike take their shots and hope to get lucky. Each week, TheLines.com will run through some of the best survivor options to help you win your pool. Read on for NFL Survivor Week 1 picks, which feature the Bengals as the biggest favorites, hosting a completely rebuilt Patriots team. Scroll to the bottom of this post for NFL Week 1 odds.
In addition to our Win Probabilities Tool, PoolGenius provides beneficial data like team popularity, Expected Value for that week, and a Future Value metric in its NFL Survivor Data Grid. Get a 3-day trial and discounts on a yearly subscription. Click PLAY NOW in the banner below to get started.
Free Pro Football Survivor Contest: Click To Play For $10,000 Prize!
NFL Survivor Week 1: Top Projected Win Percentages
Here are some NFL Survivor picks reminders:
- You must plan for the long term.
- You must take into account the size of your pool. The larger the pool, the more contrarian a path you should plan. It’s not as simple as clicking the biggest favorite every week.
- Reaching the end and splitting the pool 50 ways kills much of your expected value.
- Avoiding the week’s top pick gives you a chance of seeing the biggest chunk of your rivals knocked out.
| Team | ML | Implied Win% | Opp. | Pick% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -400 | ~78.3% | vs. NE | Subscribe |
| Bills | -250 | ~70.5% | vs. ARI | Subscribe |
| Seahawks | -228 | ~69.3% | vs. DEN | 9% |
| 49ers | -200 | ~65.5% | vs. NYJ | Subscribe |
| Saints | -192 | ~64% | vs. CAR | 9% |
NFL Survivor Week 1 Picks: The Obvious Chalk
Cincinnati sits well above everyone else in the moneyline pecking order this week. Bengals odds strongly favor Cincy to dispatch Jacoby Brissett and his band of misfit wide receivers and terrible offensive line. The main question here is offensive continuity. Will Joe Burrow show rust, and will Ja’Marr Chase even play?
The Bengals are expected to lead every survivor pool by a significant margin. They’re a fairly safe bet to win at home here, but PoolGenius’ expected value calculator doesn’t love them as a play.
Keep in mind there’s always significant uncertainty in Week 1. Teams that everyone expects to be a doormat will wind up being solid — think Houston in 2023. Thus, playing the big favorites, especially the popular ones, can be fraught with more danger than usual. Cincinnati also holds significant future value, drawing a fourth-place schedule after last year’s injury-riddled disappointment.
Personally, I’m going to avoid Cincinnati, even though I would be quite surprised to see them fall, provided Chase plays. I have very little confidence in this New England roster and played the under on its NFL win total. So, I couldn’t really blame anyone who clicks on the Bengals.
Less Clear But Still Strong Favorites
Let’s talk about the Seattle Seahawks. In my initial look over this week’s NFL Survivor Week 1 picks, they jumped out at me as a pretty strong option.
Seattle has gained significant sleeper hype this offseason after hiring Mike Macdonald as head coach. They get to host a rookie QB in Bo Nix, and Seattle retains one of the few true home-field advantages in the league. That’s a rough spot to make your NFL debut, especially when the Denver roster is devoid of significant playmakers outside of Courtland Sutton. Unless you are a huge believer in Josh Reynolds, I suppose.
On the other hand, Macdonald is still a rookie head coach. And it may take some time for him to whip this defense into shape. The unit has talent, but it still finished bottom 10 in defense DVOA and EPA.
I’m less excited here than I was a week ago. But PoolGenius loves the Seahawks, tabbing them as the highest EV option this week. That’s mainly due to a complete lack of future value. Seattle plays a rather difficult schedule, with only home against the Giants in Week 5 looking playable outside of this spot.
PG also tabs San Francisco as a top option due to low popularity. This game seems like it has significant variance, which is a survivor red flag. I want to see how Aaron Rodgers looks coming off a major injury and heading to his age-41 campaign. And the 49ers seem unlikely to be a well-oiled machine with Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk just now getting their contract situations resolved.
Buffalo also merits some interest. They play New England twice and get Tennessee at home this year. But Arizona’s defense looks dreadful, and Josh Allen should have his way even with a revamped receiving corps.
- Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord — with over 4,000 community members and our staff sharing ideas daily.
One Sneaky, Contrarian Options For NFL Survivor Week 1 Picks
How about the L.A. Chargers?
The Raiders are one of the true wild cards heading into 2024. How real was their defensive performance down the stretch, when they were the No. 4 defense by EPA/play in the second half? And can Gardner Minshew run a more functional offense than Aidan O’Connell provided, given he has a pretty solid group of weapons to work with?
Las Vegas has a rather low floor if both of these answers come back in the negative. The Chargers still have a much stronger coach/QB combo here, and they’re playing at home. They also have little future value, as many of their easier opponents come on the road. They only project as bigger favorites than this hosting Tennessee (Week 10) and Denver (Week 16).
My Favorite NFL Survivor Week 1 Picks
I favor the Bills the most this week. They’re the second-biggest favorite, but Cincinnati projects to far outstrip them in popularity. It’s hard to see how Arizona can get many stops against Josh Allen, so as long as Kyler Murray doesn’t dice the Matt Milano-less defense to pieces, the Bills should win.
My second choice would be Seattle. They’re a more contrarian and riskier option, so I’m going to strongly consider them in the big Circa pool this week. Busting out Week 1 is never fun, but we have to play to win the whole thing, not to advance to Week 2.
Good luck with NFL Survivor Week 1 picks.
Compare NFL Moneyline Odds
The more negative the moneyline odds below, the bigger the favorite. Therefore, the larger the implied probability they will win. For example, a -200 favorite has a higher implied chance to win than a -150 favorite.
21+ at most sportsbooks; gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
RELATED ARTICLES
