NFL Survivor Pool Picks: 3 Teams To Avoid Early
NFL season is almost here, which means it’s time to join NFL Survivor pools. Whether you’re joining private pools or ones hosted by NFL betting apps, making early picks can be fraught with unease, considering the lack of clarity about many teams. Thanks to roster turnover, aging, coaching changes, and other factors, many teams’ true talent levels can be hard to discern.
Before you start deciding who to lock in Week 1, keep in mind that our friends at PoolGenius offer a handy toolset that will help you optimize your selections all year. Plan for the future and use their popularity tool to avoid the chalk plays that may sink your competition.
3 Teams To Avoid Early In 2024 NFL Survivor Pools
When considering early-season picks, it’s important to think about each team’s range of outcomes. If a high level of uncertainty surrounds a team, it may behoove the player to take a wait-and-see approach before using them in NFL Survivor picks.
Below, find three teams that I’m wary of in the first few three weeks of NFL Survivor contests this year.
Buffalo Bills
- Early schedule: ARI, @MIA, JAC
The Bills open with the Cardinals, and PoolGenius currently lists them as the second-most popular play in NFL Week 1 odds (Cincinnati).
Look at NFL win totals, and it’s clear that the market has relatively modest expectations for the Bills. That’s partially due to a rather difficult schedule, which only increases the urgency to play the Bills in Survivor early on.
However, I don’t think that’s the only factor. I have real questions about this Bills roster after a pretty sizable offseason makeover.
The biggest changes come in the receiving corps, where longtime All-Pro candidate Stefon Diggs exits along with fellow starting outside WR Gabe Davis. In comes rookie Keon Coleman along with vets like Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins.
How a very young/unproven group (without a true outside threat?) performs and how heavily the passing game is even featured are complete unknowns heading into 2024. Remember that OC Joe Brady turned to a run-heavy system down the stretch. He lopped off about 2.5 passing attempts per game from Josh Allen while nearly doubling Allen’s rushing workload. Allen’s 243.7 YPG passing under Brady would have been the lowest since his first full season as a starter by quite a bit.
Buffalo also experienced significant turnover in the back seven. Safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, the backbone of the defense in this run of contention, both moved on. LB Tyrel Dodson was also a difference-maker despite coming off the bench to replace the injured Matt Milano, whose status for the season is again in doubt after another major injury.
Allen gives the Bills a high floor. But plenty of question marks remain. I prefer to avoid this chalk while I wait and see how this offense looks.
L.A. Chargers
- Early schedule: LV, @CAR, @PIT
Unlike the Bills, the Chargers are not expected to be a strong team in 2024.
However, the market seems pretty optimistic about the Jim Harbaugh hire. Pundits and bettors did not regard outgoing head coach Brandon Staley favorably. He appeared to lose the locker room, which shouldn’t be an issue under Harbaugh, a veteran of multiple deep playoff runs and a proven winner.
Survivor players will be looking hard at the Chargers early, considering they have the Raiders and Panthers on the docket. Those teams are projected to be in the mix for the No. 1 pick.
If the Chargers prove popular early, I’ll be happy to stay away and see if those teams can spring an upset. I expect some growing pains transitioning from Staley to Harbaugh, who preaches a more physical style of play.
Like the Bills, the Chargers saw their playmaking corps decimated by offseason turnover. They lost top WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams along with high-volume back Austin Ekeler.
Harbaugh will look to run the ball more. The offensive line is probably talented enough to pull it off, but again, it might take some time. Not only will the group adjust to a completely new style of football, but rookie Joe Alt is penciled in as a starter. Even talented rookies often take some time to get acclimated to the NFL.
At least six players from the defensive two-deep are gone.
I expect a down year from the Chargers as Harbaugh looks to establish his system and his culture. It wouldn’t surprise me if they drop one or both of these early games which may attract significant action in survivor pools.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Early schedule: WAS, @DET, DEN
Obviously, survivor players won’t consider the Bucs in Week 2 at Detroit. However, they could be relatively popular plays in Week 1 and Week 3, playing at home against teams expected to be among the weakest in their respective conferences.
Unlike the teams above, Tampa Bay did not experience a major offseason overhaul. My hesitancy here comes from more of a general wariness of a coach and QB combo that I don’t really trust. One can see that the market agrees, as they have a pretty low win total of just 7.5 (albeit juiced to the over) after winning a playoff game last year.
Todd Bowles isn’t a very tactically sharp coach. While he’s a defensive guy, the fact that the Bucs spent the entire season plunging Rachaad White into the line on early downs is a major red flag. To seemingly everyone else, it was obvious that the team needed to pass more. The offensive line was solid in pass protection but putrid at opening holes in the running game (29th in Adjusted Line Yards), and White is probably a better receiver than rusher.
Offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who seemingly worked wonders resurrecting Baker Mayfield’s career, moved on to Carolina.
Speaking of Mayfield, he posted career bests pretty much across the board. He had a season like this before in 2020 and followed up by playing his way out of town in 2021. Granted, he played hurt, but the inconsistency in his career makes it hard to fully buy that he’s turned a corner.
Tampa Bay has a ton of easy games late in the season. I’d rather save them for the stretch run, where they play the Panthers twice and get the Raiders at home.
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