NFL Strength Of Schedule: Toughest Draws Based On Win Totals

The NFL schedule is out. Eager bettors rush to review NFL win totals and begin combing through team pages to see who plays what kind of schedule. One punter is looking to fade the Browns’ win total. But how tough of a schedule do they play? Cleveland faces just five playoff teams and all six of the bottom teams from a season ago. But is that really an accurate gauge of a difficult or easy schedule?
TheLines’ Stephen Andress decided to go a different route than last year’s win percentages. Instead, he took the average win total for each team’s opponents to project strength of schedule for the 2023 NFL season. Using that logic, let’s take a look at who drew the toughest and easiest schedules for this season.
Scroll to the bottom of this article for the complete strength of schedule order.
Toughest Schedules In The NFL
TEAM | AVG TEAM WIN TOTAL | AVG OPPONENT WIN TOTAL |
---|---|---|
Patriots | 7.61 | 9.16 |
Bills | 10.74 | 9.16 |
Dolphins | 9.45 | 9.15 |
Chiefs | 11.74 | 9.05 |
Jets | 9.80 | 9.04 |
Vikings | 8.55 | 9.01 |
Some clear trends emerge right away, as the five toughest schedules are AFC teams. Beyond that, sportsbooks anticipate the AFC East to be the most difficult in the NFL this season. All four members – the Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, and Jets – are in the top five in terms of strength of schedule. In the division, the Patriots own the lowest average win total at 7.61 (10th-fewest in the NFL).
The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs play a first-place schedule that includes a rematch with the Eagles and Bengals and a run through the AFC East.
The Vikings, coming off a 13-win season, also play a first-place schedule. They’re the lone team playing a schedule with an average opponent win total over 9.0 that completely avoids the AFC East and the lone NFC team in the top seven. The first seven weeks of the schedule are particularly difficult for Minnesota, who handles the Eagles, Chargers, Chiefs, and 49ers in that stretch.
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Strength of Schedule Beyond NFL Win Totals
Another team of note who drew a particularly-tough schedule is the Browns. Though not reflected in opponent win totals (8.58, 14th-fewest), the layout of their schedule proves to be particularly tough. Cleveland has a Week 5 bye, the earliest in the NFL this year, and four of their first five games are at home. From Week 6 on, the Browns play just five home games and three road games in the Mountain and Pacific time zones.
The other three Week 5 bye teams fare better than the Browns. The Seahawks and Chargers both play six home games from Week 6 on; the Buccaneers play five home games, but play just one game outside of the Eastern of Central time zone all season long.
Easiest Schedules In the NFL
TEAM | AVG TEAM WIN TOTAL | AVG OPPONENT WIN TOTAL |
---|---|---|
Saints | 9.32 | 7.76 |
Falcons | 8.40 | 7.81 |
Bears | 7.72 | 8.29 |
Giants | 8.74 | 8.31 |
Colts | 6.69 | 8.33 |
Like the tough schedules, there’s commonalities among the easiest NFL schedules. This time, it’s the NFC South, which projects to be the weakest division in the league in 2023. The Saints and Falcons draw the easiest schedules in terms of opposing win totals while the Bears and Colts play the NFC South once over this season.
On top of playing the NFC South, both the Bears and Colts play last-place schedules. The Colts, Falcons, and Saints also benefit from a Week 11 bye, one of the most advantageous spots since it’s situated almost squarely in the middle of the NFL season. Both NFC South teams handle four of their six in-division games after that Week 11 bye, as well.
Notably, the Colts are the only AFC team among the top eight easiest schedules. The Colts and Texans are the lone AFC representatives in the top 13 easiest draws.
The exception on this list is the Giants, who neither play the NFC South nor draw a last-place schedule. They finished inside the playoff field in 2022, but behind both the Eagles and Cowboys in-division, rewarding the G-Men with a third-place schedule. Third-place opponents include the Raiders, Saints, and Packers – none of whom project to take a step forward this season.
In addition to playing an advantageous schedule in terms of opposing win totals, the Giants head into their lone Thursday Night Football game on equal rest as their opponent (the 49ers) and follow that up with a rest advantage on Monday Night Football against the Seahawks.
NFL Strength of Schedule And Win Total Correlation
Logic would suggest that an easier schedule means more wins and an tougher schedule means fewer wins. However, that logic is defied this season. No team among the nine easiest schedules projects for 10 wins and only one projects for a winning season (Saints, 9.32 average win total). Conversely, only one team among the top five most difficult schedules projects for under .500 (Patriots, 7.61). Among that group, the Chiefs and Bills both average over 10.5 wins.
Of the six teams projected for 10 or more wins, four have schedules in the top half of opposing win totals (Bengals, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars). Of the 17 teams projected for fewer than nine wins (and, thus, a losing season), 10 have schedules in the bottom half of strength of schedule.
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NFL Strength of Schedule
The table below is sortable for both most and least opposing win totals as well as by team win total.
TEAM | AVG TEAM WIN TOTAL | AVG OPPONENT WIN TOTAL |
---|---|---|
Patriots | 7.61 | 9.16 |
Bills | 10.74 | 9.16 |
Dolphins | 9.45 | 9.15 |
Chiefs | 11.74 | 9.05 |
Jets | 9.80 | 9.04 |
Vikings | 8.55 | 9.01 |
Raiders | 6.97 | 8.92 |
Commanders | 6.61 | 8.83 |
Chargers | 9.59 | 8.79 |
Steelers | 8.61 | 8.75 |
Buccaneers | 6.31 | 8.74 |
Cardinals | 4.44 | 8.74 |
Ravens | 9.95 | 8.71 |
Bengals | 11.33 | 8.68 |
Jaguars | 10.03 | 8.66 |
Broncos | 8.39 | 8.63 |
Titans | 7.38 | 8.62 |
Cowboys | 9.80 | 8.58 |
Browns | 9.18 | 8.58 |
Lions | 9.76 | 8.55 |
Rams | 6.80 | 8.50 |
Eagles | 10.89 | 8.49 |
49ers | 11.19 | 8.47 |
Texans | 6.34 | 8.43 |
Packers | 7.41 | 8.43 |
Seahawks | 8.71 | 8.35 |
Panthers | 7.69 | 8.35 |
Colts | 6.69 | 8.33 |
Giants | 8.74 | 8.31 |
Bears | 7.72 | 8.29 |
Falcons | 8.40 | 7.81 |
Saints | 9.32 | 7.76 |