Best NFL Christmas Eve Patriots At Broncos SNF Player Prop Bets & SGP Promos: Ezekiel Elliot SZN?
Sunday Night Football odds for Week 16 feature a matchup between two AFC foes as the New England Patriots head to Denver to take on the Broncos. The Broncos need a win to stay in the playoff hunt, while the Patriots are trying to get to season’s end. Denver is a home favorite, with New England on the moneyline to win the game. The Over/Under is set at . Let’s take a deep dive in SNF player props to see if we can exploit some matchup advantages.
Below, I’ll explain who I’m targeting in these SNF player props and share available SGP odds boosts. Use our free Prop Finder Tool on TheLines.com and shop player prices from the best betting sites. Click on the sportsbook odds below to bet now.
SNF PLAYER PROPS: PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS
Patriots RB Ezekiel Elliot Over Receptions
With Rhamondre Stevenson nursing a high ankle sprain suffered on Dec. 3, Zeke has quietly become a focal point of the Patriots passing attack. In the last three weeks, the veteran running back has notched 16 receptions. It’s not shocking, as the offense lacks the weapons to win one-on-one matchups deep; the underneath game has been where most of their work is done.
That’s mainly been the case since Kendrick Bourne tore his ACL in November. Without their No. 1 receiver, quick screens and crossers have been the staple of their offense the past few weeks and most of the season. That’s not likely to change against a defense in Denver whose weakness is defending RBs and TEs.
For the season, the Broncos defense has given up 76 receptions to running backs, the seventh-most in the league. This plays right into the hands of the Patriots’ conservative offensive style of screens and the underneath passing attack. I expect another heavy dose of Zeke in the passing game.
I’m hesitant to play any of Zeke’s rushing props since he was ineffective last week and only accumulated 2.3 YPC. Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien may give second-year running back Kevin Harris more chances to get more looks on the ground this week against the Broncos.
Hunter Henry Over Receiving Yards
Hunter Henry did not practice on Wednesday. Monitor his status before kickoff. The following is contingent on his health.
As I mentioned in last week’s Broncos vs. Lions prop article, the Broncos have been shredded by tight ends this season. Last week was no exception. Sam LaPorta went over his receiving yards prop of 45.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook and reeled in three touchdown receptions as they thumped the Broncos 42-17.
Henry doesn’t possess the speed that LaPorta does, but his route running is still elite, allowing him to create separation. That was on display last week when he got Chiefs safety Justin Reid to bite on a fake early in the second quarter on a 15-yard reception. Henry tallied six first-half receptions against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense and should’ve had another if it wasn’t nullified due to a penalty. His matchup against Denver’s defense is too favorable to pass up.
On the season, the Broncos defense has allowed 958 receiving yards to opposing TEs, the second most behind the Bengals. I’ll gladly take Henry’s over in this one and bank on their defensive woes to continue against tight ends.
Javonte Williams Under Rushing Yards
Williams has been particularly underwhelming against good run defenses this season. Against defenses that are top-10 in rushing success rate, the North Carolina product is averaging a bleak 3.3 yards per carry. For reference, his 3.7 yards per carry are right behind Buccaneers running back Rachaad White, who sits at 3.8.
New England’s rush defense ranks first in the NFL in success rate on first down, which is one of the main reasons I like the under. They do a fantastic job of stuffing the run and forcing opponents into longer second and third-down situations. It was evident against the Chiefs, as they allowed a mere 2.8 yards per carry to KC’s running backs. I struggle to see how Williams goes over this number Sunday night against the stout New England run defense.
|Offense Ranking OFF RNK
|Defense Ranking DEF RNK
|Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG
|Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG
|Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG
|Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG
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