NFL SGP Picks: Uncorrelated Same Game Parlays For Buccaneers Vs. Falcons Thursday Night Football

Written By Jeffrey Schreiber | Last Updated October 2, 2024

NFL same game parlays and player props are available at sportsbooks within Thursday Night Football odds. TheLines.com staff is focused on delivering smarter NFL SGP picks and ideas. NFL Week 5 begins with an NFC South battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. Sportsbook software has become increasingly sophisticated in adjusting odds for correlated outcomes in SGPs. Our strategy is to target what appear to be uncorrelated SGPs that may actually fit a player’s role. Yet, sportsbook SGP machines often spit out longshot prices better than the fair odds, in our opinion.

Below, we’ll highlight NFL TNF player props and a potential Bucs vs. Falcons smarter SGP strategy for those player prop picks.

Thursday Night Football SGP Odds Boosts

NFL BUCCANEERS VS. FALCONS

Evans & London Each Over 69.5 Receiving Yards

NFL MVP CANDIDATE BOOST

Mayfield Over 249.5 Pass Yards & Over 1.5 Pass TDs

TheLines recommends comparing odds boosts across the sports betting market to lock in the best available price.
Learn more about Odds Boosts here.

BetFinder Tool: THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAYER PROPS

To search Thursday Night Football player props, type in the player’s name below. For additional odds, click the “Show all bets” button. Click on the odds anywhere in the table to bet now.

2024 Strategy For NFL SGP Picks

When it comes to SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough how important it is to shop around. In our research for this season’s strategy, we sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps:

SGP machines tend to offer lower payouts than the fair odds on correlated same game parlays.

One example of an uncorrelated SGP that apps may have trouble pricing is running back with high red zone usage for potential touchdowns but low rushing volume, overall, for high-end yardage totals.

Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord, with more than 4,000 community members and our staff sharing betting ideas every day. Go to the #roles server to get push notifications to the Discord app from TheLines.com staff when they lock in a bet.

Smarter NFL SGP PICKS: bucs AT falcons Thursday Night Football

I will be referencing FanDuel Sportsbook odds, but as mentioned above, it’s a very strong practice to shop for the best odds. If you only have one or two sportsbooks, now is the time to open more and lock in additional NFL promo codes.

Same Game Parlay Idea No. 1 at +493 Odds

Bucky Irving anytime TD
Bucky Irving UNDER 44.5 Rushing Yards

This rushing line for Irving seems to indicate that the Bucs’ rookie has taken over this backfield, as it is almost ten yards higher than fellow RB Richard White. Meanwhile, bettors should be wary of this, considering the actual numbers here. White logged 58% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps and still has the edge in this backfield. While Irving has been more of an efficient runner, the matchup for the Bucs’ running success here isn’t ideal. Atlanta has played the run well, allowing 4.0 yards per carry to running backs (9th).

Now, it makes sense to bet on Irving regarding a potential touchdown for a Bucs RB. Irving handled all four backfield touches inside the 10-yard line in Week 4, cashing one in for his first rushing score of the season. It is clear that Irving is the Bucs’ preferred RB down inside scoring position.

Same Game Parlays: Idea No. 2 at +1523 Parlay Odds

Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown
Chris Godwin UNDER 64.5 Receiving Yards
Chris Godwin 6+ Receptions

Godwin has been a reception machine to begin the 2024 season. Godwin enters Week 5 ranked No. 7 among wideouts in targets and No. 3 in receptions (27). It is worth noting that Godwin is averaging only 6.1 air yards per target (WR91), showcasing that he has reception upside but is less likely to have a big yardage game. This role for Godwin has allowed him access to more opportunities in Bucs OC Liam Coen’s offense. Given these stats, it makes sense to bet on Godwin to have six or more receptions but to be wary of him going over his yardage total.

Godwin’s slot role gives him another matchup advantage this week. Atlanta has allowed 50% of the receptions to receivers to come via the slot, the sixth-highest rate in the league. All three touchdowns scored by wideouts against Atlanta have come from the slot. The Falcons are playing Cover 3 on 41.7% of passing snaps, which is sixth in the NFL. Godwin leads the team with 27.8% of the targets facing Cover 3.

It is worth noting that Godwin has had a stat line of six receptions, less than 65 receiving yards, and a TD in one of his four games played this season.

Thursday Night Football Injury Report

Player

Pos

Injury

Status

Snaps/g

Comment

Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson	RB	Hamstring	Questionable	45.5	Robinson was limited in practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Buccaneers.
Bralen Trice	OLB	Knee	Out	30	Trice suffered a torn ACL and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the 2024-25 season.
DeMarcco Hellams	S	Ankle	Out	2	Hellams is dealing with an ankle injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Drew Dalman	OL	Ankle	Out	45.3	Dalman is dealing with an ankle injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Harrison Hand	DB	Knee	Out	0	Hand is dealing with a knee injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list by the Falcons. He will miss the 2024-25 season.
Kaleb McGary	OT	Knee	Questionable	46.3	McGary was limited in practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Buccaneers.
Milo Eifler	ILB	Undisclosed	Out	56.7	Eifler is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the 2024-25 season.
Nate Landman	ILB	Quad/Calf	Out	44	Landman suffered a quad/calf injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Ray-Ray McCloud III	WR	Ankle	Questionable	56.5	McCloud III was limited in practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Buccaneers.
Rondale Moore	WR	Knee	Out	0	Moore suffered a knee injury and has been placed on the injured reserve. He will miss the 2024-25 season.
Troy Andersen	ILB	Knee	Questionable	62.8	Andersen did not practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Antoine Winfield Jr.	S	Foot	Questionable	59	Winfield Jr. did not practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Falcons.
Bryce Hall	CB	Ankle	Out	20	Hall is dealing with an ankle injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Calijah Kancey	DL	Calf	Questionable	0	Kancey did not practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Falcons.
Chase Edmonds	RB	Knee	Out	0	Edmonds is dealing with a knee injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the 2024-25 season.
Earnest Brown	DE	Ribs	Out	30.3	Brown is dealing with a rib injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Evan Deckers	LS	Hamstring	Out	7.3	Deckers is dealing with a hamstring injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Graham Barton	C	Ankle	Questionable	66	Barton was limited in practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Falcons.
Greg Gaines	DL	Ankle	Questionable	43.8	Gaines was limited in practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Falcons.
Jalen McMillan	WR	Hamstring	Questionable	45	McMillan did not practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Falcons.
Kameron Johnson	WR	Ankle	Questionable	18.3	Johnson was limited in practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Falcons.
Ko Kieft	TE	Ankle	Questionable	18.3	Kieft was limited in practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Falcons.
Logan Hall	DL	Foot	Questionable	41	Hall was limited in practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Falcons.
Luke Goedeke	OT	Concussion	Questionable	71	Goedeke was limited in practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Falcons.
Mike Evans	WR	Knee/Calf	Questionable	47.5	Evans was limited in practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Falcons.
Rakim Jarrett	WR	Undisclosed	Out	32	Jarrett is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Silas Dzansi	OT	Knee	Out	0	Dzansi is dealing with a knee injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the 2024-25 season.
SirVocea Dennis	LB	Shoulder	Out	39.8	Dennis is dealing with a shoulder injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Sua Opeta	G	Knee	Out	0	Opeta suffered a torn ACL and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the 2024-25 season.
Trey Palmer	WR	Concussion	Questionable	17	Palmer did not practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Falcons.
Tristan Wirfs	OT	Knee	Questionable	65.3	Wirfs was limited in practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Falcons.
Vita Vea	NT	Knee	Questionable	40.7	Vea was limited in practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Falcons.
William Gholston	DL	Knee	Questionable	24.8	Gholston was limited in practice on Tuesday heading into Week 5 versus the Falcons.

HOW TO FIND TNF Promos For Same Game Parlays

Most SGP promos will require you to opt-in to receive the SGP promo benefits. We are seeing some bonus bets back SGP offers for all users at FanDuel and profit boost offers at bet365, DraftKings, and Caesars. BetMGM offers SGP insurance tokens for bonus bets back if one leg loses.

Bucs vs. Falcons odds

TB @ ATL

Oct. 03, 7:15 PM

TB

ATL

There are no odds available at this time. Please check back again soon.

Photo by AP/Jason Behnken

WRITTEN BY

Jeffrey Schreiber

Jeffrey Schreiber is a sports writer for TheLines.com and Catena Media. Jeff uses data-driven insights to help readers understand the deeper reasoning behind his analysis. He uses his foundations in finance to interpret complex data when making his sports betting decisions. During the 2022 NFL playoffs divisional round, he scored a $25,000 win off of a $37 same-game parlay bet, highlighting his football betting season. Jeff aims to educate and engage the sports community by presenting his analysis in an approachable yet thorough manner.